Source
- Account: @HFI_Research (HFI Research)
- Tweet ID: 2041202353181962307
- Date: Apr 9, 2026 (Final crude estimate for April 2 week)
- Link: https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2041202353181962307
Full Tweet Text
Final crude estimate for April 2 week. It looks like US crude exports are finally starting to ramp with imports falling. We should start to see sizable draws in US commercial crude storage starting next week. The flow impact is starting to hit onshore inventories.
Key Signals (Extracted)
📦 US Crude Exports — Ramping Up
US crude exports are finally starting to ramp. This reflects changing flow dynamics: US production is being redirected toward export markets rather than domestic storage. A significant shift from prior periods where exports were constrained.
📉 US Crude Imports — Falling
Imports are falling, contributing to the net supply contraction in the domestic market. Lower imports means less foreign crude entering US storage and processing.
🛢️ US Commercial Crude Storage — Imminent Draws
The combination of rising exports and falling imports means US commercial crude storage should start seeing sizable draws starting the week of April 9. This is a significant reversal from the build pattern seen in prior weeks.
📊 Flow Impact — Onshore Inventories
The "flow impact" (net of exports vs imports) is now hitting onshore inventories directly. The storage buffer is being drawn down.
Contrarian Thesis / Key Insight
The US commercial storage buffer is about to be consumed. While the market may be focused on the large geopolitical supply outage, HFI Research is watching the flow data to signal that US domestic inventories — the last line of supply buffer — will begin drawing. Once storage bottoms, the market will be forced to confront the full supply gap with no inventory cushion left. This is a countdown signal: inventory draws will eventually force prices higher as the market runs out of cheap supply options.
Data Points
| Data Point | Value |
|---|---|
| US Crude Exports | Ramping (directionally up) |
| US Crude Imports | Falling (directionally down) |
| US Commercial Storage | Sizable draws expected from ~Apr 9, 2026 |
| Reference week | April 2 week (final estimate) |
Tags
#us-crude-exports #us-crude-imports #inventory-draws #commercial-storage #flow-impact #supply-drawdown #us-inventories #export-ramp #import-decline