Source
- Account: @HFI_Research (HFI Research)
- Tweet ID: 2043751066811203925
- Date: Apr 13, 2026
- Link: https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2043751066811203925
Full Tweet Text
I think the sell-side community will have an incredibly hard time coming up with an oil price to offset an 11 to 13 million b/d supply outage. We tried. Zero confidence in the result. But all I can say is that it's not $99 or whatever the fuck Brent is currently trading at.
Key Signals (Extracted)
⚠️ Supply Outage — 11 to 13 Million b/d
The active supply outage is in the range of 11 to 13 million b/d — an extraordinary disruption. For context, global oil demand is ~104 million b/d, meaning this outage represents roughly 10-12% of total global demand being removed from the market.
📊 Sell-Side Pricing Failure
The institutional sell-side (banks, brokers) cannot model a price that clears this supply/demand imbalance. HFI Research attempted to price it and came away with zero confidence. The professional pricing apparatus is unanchored — there is no known market-clearing price for this scenario.
💲 Current Price Disconnect
Current Brent is ~$99. HFI Research's explicit position: $99 is not the price that clears an 11-13M b/d outage. The market is dramatically underpricing the supply shock.
🔬 SPR Release Inadequate
From related HFI Research analysis: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases ~2.5M b/d, which against an 11+ M b/d outage is far too small to balance the market. The IEA's ~400M bbl releases are similarly insufficient.
Contrarian Thesis / Key Insight
The market is mispricing the oil supply shock by a massive degree. When the sell-side cannot come up with a price, it means conventional models have failed. The directional call is unambiguously higher — current prices ($99 Brent) do not reflect the structural supply deficit. HFI Research is saying the price required to clear a 11-13M b/d outage doesn't exist at current levels; the price has to be substantially higher, potentially much higher, to destroy enough demand to balance the market.
Data Points
| Data Point | Value |
|---|---|
| Supply outage magnitude | 11–13 million b/d |
| Approximate % of global demand | ~10-12% |
| SPR release capacity | ~2.5 million b/d |
| Current Brent price | ~$99 |
| HFI view on price adequacy | $99 is NOT the clearing price |
Tags
#supply-outage #11-13m-bd #sell-side-failure #brent-mispricing #demand-destruction #SPR #IEA #price-discovery #contrarian #supply-shock #structurally-higher-oil