Context¶
A conflict in the Persian Gulf region has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint. This is an active, evolving situation. We are tracking this as a knowledge base.
The 3 Research Questions¶
Q1: How long and how deep will the energy supply destruction be?¶
- What percentage of global oil supply is affected?
- How long might this disruption last? (Best case, base case, worst case)
- Which countries/producers are affected? (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar?)
- What is the current status of negotiations or cease-fire efforts?
Q2: What price impact will this supply reduction have?¶
- What does historical precedent say about oil supply shocks and price impact? (1973, 1979, 1990, 2022)
- What are current oil price forecasts from analysts, banks, and institutions?
- What is the price elasticity of oil demand in the short run vs. long run?
- At what price level does demand destruction significantly reduce consumption?
Q3: What does the physical supply reduction mean for Europe?¶
- How exposed is Europe to oil/supply disruptions through this route?
- What is Europe's current fuel storage situation?
- What are the real-world impacts already being observed? (Fuel shortages? Rationing? Price spikes?)
- What is the realistic worst case for European energy security?
What We're Looking For¶
For each question, find:
- Specific data points with sources (%, $/barrel, days/months)
- Named institutions and their forecasts or assessments
- Research papers or reports with direct relevance
- Real-world observations of physical impacts (not just price)
- Where analysts disagree — that's interesting data too
What to Return¶
A structured research report with:
1. Key findings with specific numbers
2. Source citations (institution name, report title, date, URL if available)
3. Any notable quotes
4. Gaps in the research — what isn't covered?
5. Sources that seem most credible and data-rich
Known Coverage (Already in Knowledge Base)¶
The following are confirmed present — do not duplicate, but do build on:
- EIA STEO April 2026: 9.1 mbd shut-in, $115/b Brent peak Q2, $76/b 2027, 20% global supply via Hormuz
- Dallas Fed Hormuz Closure Economics (March 2026): ~20% supply affected, $98/$115/$132 WTI scenarios, near-zero short-run supply elasticity
- Field Report (Paris, April 8): Physical shortage — local gas station with no gasoline or diesel, E85 only
- Kobeissi Letter (Kobeissi): Qatar warning of $150/bbl scenario
Specific Institutions to Research¶
These are the highest-priority gaps. Prioritise in this order:
- Goldman Sachs — energy research division, specific 2026 oil price scenarios for Hormuz disruption
- JPMorgan — commodity research, oil demand destruction estimates, Hormuz-specific analysis
- Morgan Stanley — oil demand destruction modelling, European exposure scenarios
- IEA Oil Market Report (April 2026) — global oil balance, supply/demand numbers, inventory draws
- Trafigura / Vitol — commodity trader commentary (public statements), physical market colour
- Wood Mackenzie or McKinsey — energy scenario analysis, worst-case European impact
- CERAWeek 2026 (IHS Markit) — conference proceedings or summaries if available
- OPEC+ official statements — production target changes, spare capacity assessments
Notes¶
- Focus on 2025–2026 publications where possible
- Institutional research (IEA, EIA, OPEC, Banks, Think Tanks) is preferred over media commentary
- Quantitative analysis > qualitative opinion
- Real-world observations of physical supply impacts (shortages, rationing, storage levels) are particularly valuable
- When institutions conflict, document both positions — divergence is data