Context

A conflict in the Persian Gulf region has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint. This is an active, evolving situation. We are tracking this as a knowledge base.

The 3 Research Questions

Q1: How long and how deep will the energy supply destruction be?

• What percentage of global oil supply is affected?
• How long might this disruption last? (Best case, base case, worst case)
• Which countries/producers are affected? (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar?)
• What is the current status of negotiations or cease-fire efforts?

Q2: What price impact will this supply reduction have?

• What does historical precedent say about oil supply shocks and price impact? (1973, 1979, 1990, 2022)
• What are current oil price forecasts from analysts, banks, and institutions?
• What is the price elasticity of oil demand in the short run vs. long run?
• At what price level does demand destruction significantly reduce consumption?

Q3: What does the physical supply reduction mean for Europe?

• How exposed is Europe to oil/supply disruptions through this route?
• What is Europe's current fuel storage situation?
• What are the real-world impacts already being observed? (Fuel shortages? Rationing? Price spikes?)
• What is the realistic worst case for European energy security?

What We're Looking For

For each question, find:

• Specific data points with sources (%, $/barrel, days/months)
• Named institutions and their forecasts or assessments
• Research papers or reports with direct relevance
• Real-world observations of physical impacts (not just price)
• Where analysts disagree — that's interesting data too

What to Return

A structured research report with:

1. Key findings with specific numbers
2. Source citations (institution name, report title, date, URL if available)
3. Any notable quotes
4. Gaps in the research — what isn't covered?
5. Sources that seem most credible and data-rich

Known Coverage (Already in Knowledge Base)

The following are confirmed present — do not duplicate, but do build on:

• EIA STEO April 2026: 9.1 mbd shut-in, $115/b Brent peak Q2, $76/b 2027, 20% global supply via Hormuz
• Dallas Fed Hormuz Closure Economics (March 2026): ~20% supply affected, $98/$115/$132 WTI scenarios, near-zero short-run supply elasticity
• Field Report (Paris, April 8): Physical shortage — local gas station with no gasoline or diesel, E85 only
• Kobeissi Letter (Kobeissi): Qatar warning of $150/bbl scenario

Specific Institutions to Research

These are the highest-priority gaps. Prioritise in this order:

1. Goldman Sachs — energy research division, specific 2026 oil price scenarios for Hormuz disruption
2. JPMorgan — commodity research, oil demand destruction estimates, Hormuz-specific analysis
3. Morgan Stanley — oil demand destruction modelling, European exposure scenarios
4. IEA Oil Market Report (April 2026) — global oil balance, supply/demand numbers, inventory draws
5. Trafigura / Vitol — commodity trader commentary (public statements), physical market colour
6. Wood Mackenzie or McKinsey — energy scenario analysis, worst-case European impact
7. CERAWeek 2026 (IHS Markit) — conference proceedings or summaries if available
8. OPEC+ official statements — production target changes, spare capacity assessments

Notes

• Focus on 2025–2026 publications where possible
• Institutional research (IEA, EIA, OPEC, Banks, Think Tanks) is preferred over media commentary
• Quantitative analysis > qualitative opinion
• Real-world observations of physical supply impacts (shortages, rationing, storage levels) are particularly valuable
• When institutions conflict, document both positions — divergence is data