Date Compiled: 2026-04-16
Type: Event — Conflict Onset
Related Questions: Q1 / Q2 / Q3
February 28 Conflict Onset¶
Date: February 28, 2026
Type: U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian infrastructure / Hormuz closure
Participants: United States, Israel, Iran
Outcome: Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; ~9.1 mbd removed from global oil markets; largest geopolitical supply disruption in modern history
Status: Ongoing — acute phase; provisional ceasefire established April 7, 2026
What Happened¶
On February 28, 2026, military conflict between the United States and Israel, on one side, and Iran, on the other, began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint, carrying approximately 20% of global oil supply and 22% of global LNG — effectively shut down. The closure was initially driven by insurance contract withdrawals from tankers, then by direct attacks causing shipwrecks and physical hazards. Transit collapsed from approximately 130 ships/day to approximately 6 ships/day — a ~95% drop confirmed by WTO AIS vessel-tracking data. The EIA documented production shut-ins of 7.5 mbd in March 2026, rising to 9.1 mbd in April 2026 from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. This is the first time the Strait of Hormuz has ever fully closed in modern history.
Key Facts¶
- February 28, 2026 — U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure triggered the conflict and Hormuz closure — SYNTHESIS, Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION
- Hormuz transit collapsed from ~130 ships/day to ~6 ships/day — a ~95% drop confirmed by WTO AIS data — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, SYNTHESIS
- ~20% of global oil supply removed from the market — the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption in modern history, 3–5× larger than Yom Kippur War (1973, ~6%), Iranian Revolution (1979, ~4%), Persian Gulf War (1990, ~6%), or 2022 Russia-Ukraine war (~3%) — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, Dallas-Fed-Hormuz-Closure, HISTORICAL-PARALLELS
- Saudi Ras Tanura (world's largest oil processing facility) struck by drone — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, HISTORICAL-PARALLELS
- UAE Fujairah ADCOP terminal damaged — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, HISTORICAL-PARALLELS
- EIA documented shut-ins: 7.5 mbd in March 2026, rising to 9.1 mbd in April 2026 — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, EIA-STEO-April-2026
- Qatar Ras Laffan LNG/condensate outage declared — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION
- Kazakhstan CPC pipeline sabotage added ~1.2 mbd additional shut-in (70% of Kazakh exports, 3–5 year repair timeline) — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, SYNTHESIS
- First full Hormuz closure in modern history — Dallas-Fed-Hormuz-Closure, HISTORICAL-PARALLELS
- Acute shock phase: The 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War (1984–88) saw ~1 tanker struck per day but the Strait remained passable; 2026 produced a qualitatively different outcome with effective total closure — HISTORICAL-PARALLELS
- Global GDP impact: All Dallas Fed scenarios show −2.9% annualized global GDP growth in Q2 2026 regardless of duration scenario — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION, Dallas-Fed-Hormuz-Closure
- Goldman Sachs base case: 6-week core Hormuz blockade → cumulative oil losses exceeding 800 million barrels — Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION
- April 7, 2026 provisional ceasefire halted the acute phase — apr-07-2026, Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION
Significance for the Crisis¶
The February 28 conflict onset is the foundational event of the 2026 oil shock. The immediate effect — removing ~20% of global oil supply from markets — produced the most severe supply disruption in modern history. This single event determined the price trajectory for Q2 2026, the GDP impact across all scenarios, and the urgency driving the April 7 ceasefire and April 10 Islamabad summit. The combination of Hormuz closure (~9.1 mbd) plus Kazakhstan CPC sabotage (~1.2 mbd) created a supply gap that cannot be resolved by OPEC+ production increases (OPEC+ announced only 206,000 b/d increase — characterized as "a signal, not a solution"). Even if the Islamabad summit produces a durable ceasefire, the physical market will remain tight for 45–60 additional days due to voyage lag and insurance constraints. The infrastructure damage at Ras Tanura, Fujairah, and the CPC pipeline means the recovery path is structurally longer than prior oil shocks. The food-price inflation pathway via urea/fertilizer disruption (Hormuz carries ~30% of global seaborne urea exports) creates a 6–12 month lag that will extend the economic impact well beyond the immediate crisis resolution.