Authors: Matthew P. Funaiole (VP, iDeas Lab, CSIS) and Harrison Prétat (Deputy Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS)

Chart-by-Chart Summary

Chart 1: Tankers Raced for the Strait — Few Made It

After Iran's foreign minister announced reopening on April 17, dozens of vessels surged toward the Strait but most quickly reversed course. At least 13 tankers confirmed to have made it through.

Chart 2: Ship Traffic at a Fraction of Prewar Levels

Daily transits remain well below pre-conflict levels. Some vessels may be operating "dark" (AIS off), but commercial traffic has not recovered.

Chart 3: Transits Concentrated Among Few Countries

Of 187 vessels that successfully transited since March 4, over half are operated by companies from just four countries. China tops the list, despite — or because of — reports that Beijing pressed Tehran to protect Chinese shipping.

Chart 4: Routing Shift Toward Iranian Waters

Commercial shipping through Hormuz increasingly subject to Iranian conditions. Some vessels are coordinating through designated intermediaries, sharing voyage information, and paying additional fees. Since March 15, most observed transits follow preapproved routes closer to Iranian waters.

Chart 5: Major Asian and Gulf Economies Have Billions at Stake

Most trade by value through Hormuz is tied to a handful of economies. Gulf exporters depend on Hormuz for the bulk of their output; major Asian economies rely on it for energy imports. Many of the most exposed countries are key US security partners.

Chart 6: Crisis Pushes Up Agricultural Commodity Prices

Crude oil and fertilizer prices have risen sharply. Grain has not yet experienced comparable spikes, but sustained energy and fertilizer price increases could affect global food production prices over time.

Chart 7: US Relatively Insulated from Natural Gas Prices

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have risen sharply and remain elevated. The United States, buffered by abundant domestic production, is relatively insulated — prices steady.

Chart 8: Hormuz Is Just One of Several Critical Chokepoints

The Strait carries a smaller share of total seaborne trade than some other chokepoints, but it remains key for global energy flows. Traffic into/out of the Persian Gulf cannot easily reroute when disruptions occur — hundreds of vessels and billions of dollars in goods have been stranded.

Source

CSIS iDeas Lab, published late April 2026. https://www.csis.org/analysis/strait-hormuz-8-charts