Bibliography
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/irans-strait-hormuz-gambit-and-limits-us-military-power
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/irans-strait-hormuz-gambit-and-limits-us-military-power"
Author: Daniel Byman, Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program, CSIS; Professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service
Key Claims
The Paradoxical Equilibrium
The conflict has settled into a structural standoff: Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz while the United States "blockades the blockaders" by restricting traffic to and from Iranian ports. Neither side can achieve its maximalist objectives through military means alone.
Iran's Enduring Calculus
Iranian leaders — particularly within the IRGC — believe they can outlast U.S. domestic political pressure. For Iran, the conflict is existential; for most Americans, it is "best over and forgotten." This asymmetry gives Iran structural negotiating leverage.
The Trump Credibility Trap
President Trump faces a credibility problem: his threats of further escalation must be balanced against domestic political risk if U.S. troops are killed in any operation to clear the Strait. "Bluffing, which Trump is apt to do, only risks convincing the Iranians that U.S. red lines are not real."
US Military Options
Washington retains capacity to clear mines, escort shipping, and suppress Iranian naval assets using Marines and special operations. But this is "not a costless proposition" — limited Iranian successes in killing U.S. ground troops could be a political disaster for Trump.
Most Likely Outcome: Negotiated Settlement
The most plausible outcome resembles a modified JCPOA: the US pushes for a 20-year enrichment freeze; Iran proposes single digits. "A big difference, but also a bridgeable one." Domestic political calendars in both the US and Israel (fall elections) add complexity.
China's Role
- Oil purchases: China is a major purchaser of Iranian oil and a potential conduit for illicit trade
- Satellite imagery: Beijing allows commercial satellite imagery to flow to Iran
- Missile propellant chemicals: China has provided chemicals usable for missile propellants
- Air defense consideration: Beijing was reported considering air defense systems for Iran; US Defense Secretary Hegseth claims Beijing assured him this is not happening
The Durable Precedent
Critical finding: "Iran has demonstrated that it can impose costs on global energy markets through limited disruption. Whether this takes the form of outright blockades, intermittent harassment, or even quasi-institutionalized 'tolls' on Gulf shipping, the precedent is now established."
If the US does not develop the capability and credibility to manage this threat, "what is now a short-term, if painful, disruption will harden into a durable feature of the global energy system."
Source
CSIS, published April 2026. https://www.csis.org/analysis/irans-strait-hormuz-gambit-and-limits-us-military-power