Bibliography
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/marketreview/"
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/marketreview
Key Data Points
- Brent annual average 2026: $96/bbl (revised upward from prior projections)
- Q2 2026 peak: $115/bbl scenario embedded in revised outlook
- Supply disruption duration: disruptions modeled through late 2026 in base case
- Restart lag: ports take approximately 2 months to clear backlogs after Strait transit resumes
- Structural note: All global spare production capacity is geographically trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz — there is no meaningful offsetting supply source
Analysis
The EIA's May 2026 STEO market review marks a significant upward revision to its price assumptions. The revised $96 average reflects the embedded reality of sustained Hormuz disruption rather than a transient shock. The $115 Q2 peak represents the period of maximum uncertainty and supply choke.
Critically, the EIA framing notes that even when the Strait reopens, the logistical path to normalized exports runs through a 2-month port clearance backlog — meaning June's prices will be determined by May's transit failures.
The framing that "all spare capacity is behind Hormuz" mirrors what Vitol's Hardy told the FT Commodities summit, providing cross-source corroboration.
Source
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Market Review component. Published May 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/marketreview/