date compiled: 2026-04-14
institution: Goldman Sachs
type: investment-bank
description: Goldman Sachs revised Brent 2026 average from $56/b pre-war baseline to $85/b (March 22) then $90/b (April 9) — still the most bearish major bank, underestimating the scale and duration of the Hormuz disruption relative to physical market reality.
sources: Reuters (March 22, 2026), Reuters (April 9, 2026), OilPrice.com, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance
Related Articles
Q1 Supply Destruction · Q2 Price Impact · Synthesis · Morgan Stanley Oil Scenarios 2026
Key Revision Timeline
November 2025 — Baseline (Pre-War)
- Goldman pre-war Brent 2026 average: $56/b (original baseline before Hormuz conflict)
- This baseline was proven dramatically wrong by subsequent events
March 22/23, 2026 — First Major Revision
- Goldman raised 2026 Brent average forecast: From $77/b to $85/b (+$8)
- Goldman WTI forecast raised: From $72/b to $79/b
- Trigger: Growing market fears of U.S./Israel military action against Iran; Hormuz disruption risk pricing in
- Published: Reuters, March 22, 2026
April 9, 2026 — Second Revision (Trimmed on Ceasefire)
- Goldman trimmed Q2 2026 Brent forecast: To $90/b (from $85)
- Goldman trimmed Q2 2026 WTI forecast: To $87/b
- Trigger: U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire; market interpreted as bullish-to-neutral shift
- Published: Reuters, April 9, 2026
April 9 Scenario Framework (Post-Ceasefire)
| Scenario | Brent | WTI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire holds, Hormuz reopens | ~$90/Q2 | ~$87/Q2 | Base case post-ceasefire |
| Severe: Hormuz stays shut 1 more month | $120/Q3, $115/Q4 | — | 21 days at ~10% normal flows |
| General: Brent above $100 all year | $100+ avg | — | If disruption persists |
Key assumption for severe scenario: 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz flows at roughly 10% of normal levels.
Key Data Point: $56 → $85 → $90 Trajectory
The trajectory from $56/b (November 2025 pre-war baseline) → $85/b (March 23 revision) → $90/b (April 9) is itself significant institutional data. Goldman Sachs revised Brent up by approximately $29–34/b from pre-war baseline to immediate post-ceasefire forecast — a ~60% increase in the space of 4–5 months, reflecting the most dramatic forecast revision cycle in Goldman Sachs commodities research history.
Goldman explicitly acknowledges the pre-war consensus of ~$56/b was wrong.
Comparison to Other Institutions (Updated Apr 14)
| Institution | Q2 2026 Brent | Full-Year 2026 Avg | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $90/b | ~$85/b (raised from $77) | Trimmed on ceasefire; $120 severe scenario |
| Morgan Stanley | $110/b | $100/b | Most bullish; maintained despite ceasefire |
| JPMorgan | War scenario $150/b+ | ~$100/b (partial de-escalation) | Ceiling $150/b if disruptions persist past mid-May |
| IEA | Physical crude near $150/bbl | — | Physical-futures disconnect acute |
| OIES | $116/b April peak | $92/b avg | Full-year 2026 |
Key Insight
Goldman's severe scenario ($120) maps to their 21-day disruption assumption. The market is currently pricing in a reasonably fast resolution — which keeps Goldman's risk premium contained at $90. If Islamabad (Apr 10) fails or the ceasefire breaks, Goldman would likely revise their Q3/Q4 forecasts upward. However, Goldman is notably more conservative than Morgan Stanley ($110) and JPMorgan ($150+) on the post-ceasefire outlook.
Synthesis · Price Elasticity · Iea April 2026 · Morgan Stanley Oil Forecast April 2026 · Jpmorgan Oil Forecast 2026