Source: Rigzone — May 13, 2026
Author: Andreas Exarheas (Rigzone), based on JPMorgan report by Natasha Kaneva
Price Forecasts
| Period | Brent ($/bbl) | WTI ($/bbl) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Average | $96 | $89 |
| Q2 2026 | $103 | — |
| Q3 2026 | $104 | — |
| 2027 Average | $75 | $70 |
Key Insights
1. No Modern Analogue for This Shock
JPMorgan deliberately refrained from publishing price targets for two months because "within that dataset [modern oil futures, ~25-30 years], there is no true analogue for a disruption of this magnitude." The closest comparable events (1956 Suez Crisis) predate modern oil futures markets.
2. Four Mechanisms Shaping Price Formation
- Starting point matters — Market entered 2026 with swollen inventories (fair value ~$60), unlike 2022 when starting from deficit
- Duration dominates scale — "A temporary shock, even a large one, can be absorbed. A prolonged disruption cannot."
- Nature of shock — This is not price-led demand adjustment; demand is being removed through availability constraints
- Barrel redistribution — More dislocation showing up in refined product cracks, allowing crude benchmarks to remain lower than supply shock size implies
3. Operational Stress Timeline
- OECD commercial inventories on track to approach operational stress levels by early June
- Rationing could extend the draw toward June 30 but at cost of reduced consumption, lower refinery runs, and broader economic slowdown
4. Refined Products Crisis
- Jet fuel prices nearly doubled across Asia, Europe, US
- Jet cracks widened to $80-100/bbl over crude
- S&P Global expects global refinery runs to decline 5.2 mb/d YoY in Q2 (twice the "Great Recession" decline)
- "We have now crossed the Rubicon" — Daniel Evans, S&P Global
5. Base Case
Strait reopens in June — anchored on June 1 with clear, credible announcement ratified by both sides (e.g., UN Security Council statement).
Significance
JPMorgan's "tank bottom" framing is the most concrete timing call from a major bank. The insight that crude may stabilize while product cracks widen is crucial for understanding the physical vs. financial oil market disconnect. The historical framing (1,000+ years, never closed) underscores the unprecedented nature.