date compiled: 2026-04-14
institution: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES)
type: research-institute
source: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oies-oil-monthly-issue-52/
source date: February 23, 2026
questions addressed: Q1, Q2
Related Articles
Q1 Supply Destruction · Q2 Price Impact · Synthesis
Key Data Points
- Publication date: February 23, 2026 — earliest major institutional forecast of the conflict's impact
- Global balance shift: From previously projected 950 kb/d surplus to a 1.9 mb/d deficit in 2026 — a full reversal
- April 2026 deficit modeled: 6.9 mb/d (March: 5.7 mb/d deficit)
- Maximum potential production shut-ins modeled: Close to 12 mb/d across the Middle East Gulf
- Gulf oil liquids production decline: March: 8.2 mb/d month-on-month; April: 9.6 mb/d month-on-month
- Brent 2026 average forecast: Raised to $92/b (from prior $67/b); 2027: $81/b
- Brent April 2026 peak forecast: $116/b in April; Q3 2026 average: $100/b; retreating to low-$80s by year-end 2026
- Global oil supply 2026: Contracted by 1.3 mb/d in 2026; rebound of 2.7 mb/d in 2027
- OPEC+ crude 2026: Contracted by 2 mb/d in 2026; growth rebounds to 1.5 mb/d in 2027
- Non-OPEC+ crude growth 2026: Revised lower by 240 kb/d; Qatar annual losses of 430 kb/d (partly offset by 190 kb/d gains elsewhere, mainly US)
- Non-crude liquids growth 2026: Lowered by 110 kb/d to 190 kb/d (NGL losses); rebounds 570 kb/d in 2027
- Global oil demand growth 2026: Cut by 260 kb/d to 1 mb/d (2026); 1.1 mb/d (2027)
- OECD demand growth 2026: Lowered by 90 kb/d; Europe especially vulnerable to middle distillate tightness
- Non-OECD demand growth 2026: Revised lower by 170 kb/d to 1 mb/d; Asia most physically exposed to disruptions in crude and product trade
- 2027 global balance: Narrows to a 340 kb/d deficit (from 1.9 mb/d deficit in 2026)
- Reference case assumption: Conflict peaks in April 2026; no further physical damage beyond forecast date; Hormuz flows gradually return to above 95% of pre-crisis levels only by 4Q26 — partly due to logistical bottlenecks persisting even after war ends
Significance
Issue 52 was the first OIES assessment capturing the dramatic reversal in the global oil market balance caused by the Hormuz conflict. The modeled April 2026 deficit of 6.9 mb/d was the most severe short-term oil market imbalance projected by any institutional forecaster at that time.
The OIES reference case was notably more pessimistic than EIA or Goldman Sachs on the timeline for recovery — projecting that even after a ceasefire, Hormuz flows would not fully normalize until Q4 2026.
Comparison to IEA April 2026 (Post-Conflict Verification)
| Metric | OIES Issue 52 (Feb 23 pre-conflict model) | IEA April 2026 (actual/in-progress) |
|---|---|---|
| April deficit | 6.9 mb/d | Confirmed by IEA direction (85 Mb March draw, export loss >13 mb/d) |
| Full-year 2026 balance | 1.9 mb/d deficit | Demand contracted first time in 6 years (−80 kb/d) |
| Recovery timeline | Not before Q4 2026 | Physical market lag confirmed by MS, Vitol |
| Brent April peak | $116/b | Physical crude near $150/bbl (IEA); futures $103/b Apr 13 |
Open question: The OIES pre-conflict model anticipated a 6.9 mb/d April deficit — the IEA April report confirms the directional trend but the actual export loss (>13 mb/d per IEA) is roughly double what OIES modeled. The severity exceeded the pre-conflict model.
Q1 Supply Destruction · Q2 Price Impact · Iea April 2026
Bibliography
- https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/oies-oil-monthly-issue-52/