Bibliography
- https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire
- https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire/"
Authors: Fraser McKay (Head of Upstream Analysis), Alan Gelder (SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets), Tom Marzec-Manser (Europe Gas and LNG)
Oil Recovery
The 11 Million b/d Shut-In
Wood Mackenzie estimates 11 million b/d of upstream production is currently shut in across the Middle East.
Export Logistics Is the Prerequisite
Recovery requires a "workable system" of transit. Key prerequisites:
- Sustained security for transiting vessels
- Vessel insurance availability
- Commercial trade financing
- Sustained outbound vessel transits (making oil-on-water available)
- Sustained inbound transits (making ballasting vessels available to load crude)
- Confidence in transit viability during and beyond current ceasefire
Ballasting vessels are unlikely to enter via Hormuz any sooner than "just in time" logistics — at risk of becoming trapped if hostilities resume.
Iraq: 6–9 Months to Prior Production
Even unconstrained, countries like Iraq will need 6–9 months to reach prior production levels due to:
- Reservoir management constraints
- Resource constraints
"Even if traffic is unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq up to nine months to reach prior production levels, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints." — Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis
Storage ullage: Iraq/Kuwait Have Less Than 2 Weeks
- Saudi Arabia and UAE: ~1 month of storage capacity
- Iraq and Kuwait: less than 2 weeks
This means Iraq and Kuwait face the most acute storage pressure and will be most constrained in their restart ramp-up.
Warning on Rapid Restart
"Operators hastened by regulators and governments to restore production too rapidly, will risk doing more long-term damage to foundational assets." — Fraser McKay
Initial Recovery: More Than Sufficient for Export Ramp-Up
More than half of most fields' previous supply levels could be restored before shipping constraints ease. After that point, different recovery profiles by country will diverge.
Positive: Reservoir Pressures Rebalance
Shut-ins create a large underground data set for reservoir engineers. Pressure around producing wells will have increased, helping well deliverability during recovery.
LNG/Gas Recovery
Qatar Ras Laffan
- 12 operable trains at Ras Laffan
- If restart begins May 2026: full service by end of August
- North site (41 mtpa capacity): restart in just over one month
- South site: two trains sustained damage and will not return for years
- South site capacity reduced to 24 mtpa (down from 36 mtpa)
UAE ADNOC Das Island LNG
Expected to return to service fairly quickly.
UAE Domestic Gas
- Domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE harder hit than oil
- Sustained disruption at Habshan would require longer-term repair
- Would compel UAE to reduce gas reinjection volumes or increase piped imports via Dolphin pipeline
Source
Wood Mackenzie, press release, published April 8, 2026. https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire/