Key Claims
- 53 container vessels belonging to the world's top shipping lines were trapped inside the Persian Gulf when Hormuz effectively closed — 79% (42 vessels) remain inside two months later
- ADNOC exports cut by more than 1 million bpd from a 3.1 mb/d baseline, per Kpler AIS tracking data
- 2 MSC vessels seized by Iranian authorities — most severe outcome of the crisis, drawing significant attention from maritime insurers and legal teams
- 2 vessels sustained damage from debris
- 9 of 53 have successfully exited; 2 of those required a second attempt
- Carrier escape rates: CMA CGM 13%, MSC 29% (including seized vessels), COSCO 40% — smaller carriers (Wan Hai, Evergreen, Yang Ming, ONE, HMM) have 0% escape rate
Context
Kpler's AIS-based container intelligence provides the physical real-time picture of the Hormuz crisis — tracking not just oil flows but the broader maritime disruption. The 53 trapped container vessels represent tens of thousands of TEUs of capacity removed from global rotation, generating zero revenue while consuming fuel, incurring port costs, and tying up crews under extraordinary conditions.
Carrier-by-Carrier Breakdown
| Carrier | Trapped | Escaped | Seized | Still Inside | Escape Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMA CGM | 15 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 13% |
| MSC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 29% |
| COSCO | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Evergreen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| Yang Ming | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| ONE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| HMM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Wan Hai | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
COSCO's higher escape rate (40%) is notable — Chinese-flagged tonnage may operate under a different diplomatic and risk calculus than Western carriers.
ADNOC Export Impact
Kpler data shows ADNOC's exports have been cut by more than 1 mb/d from their 3.1 mb/d baseline. Most of ADNOC's exports are the Murban grade, exported by pipeline from onshore fields — meaning the export cut is a pipeline logistics decision, not a production shutdown. UAE has some flexibility to restore exports faster than countries with more complex offshore operations.
Market Implications
For cargo owners with supply chains dependent on Gulf petrochemical exports, electronics imports through Jebel Ali, or regional feeder connections, the picture has moved from "disruption" to "structural rerouting." The few boxes that have escaped command significantly different routing costs via alternative corridors (landbridge, Cape of Good Hope for non-time-sensitive cargo).
Relevance to Q1/Q3
Supports Q1 Supply Destruction with hard AIS-tracked export data. Relevant to Q3 Europe Impact for European importers of Gulf-origin petrochemicals and refined products — rerouting costs and delays compound supply constraints from non-maritime channels.