Key Claims
- Three crude oil tankers confirmed exiting the Strait of Hormuz on May 10 with AIS trackers switched off — the most current physical flow signal available
- One vessel (Agios Fanourios I) heading to Vietnam to discharge at Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical (arrival May 26) — had failed at least two previous transit attempts before successfully exiting
- A second tanker also exited with tracker off during the same period — exact origin and cargo undisclosed
- One US-sanctioned tanker identified in AIS data from early April 2026 was operating under a falsified flag state to mask Iranian crude origin — illustrates the scale of spoofing alongside conventional tracker evasion
- Tracker evasion is the primary real-time signal of how much oil is actually flowing through the Strait despite the official blockage
Context
AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking is the gold standard for monitoring physical oil flows. When tankers switch trackers off, they are attempting to hide their cargo origin and destination — the most common reason in the current crisis is concealing Iranian crude shipments that would violate US sanctions. The tracker-off movements are therefore the best available proxy for actual (if informal) flow volumes through the Strait.
Significance
The Reuters May 10 data is the most current physical flow signal in the KB. While institutional forecasts and IEA reports lag by days to weeks, AIS tracker data captures actual vessel movements as they happen. The fact that multiple tankers are successfully exiting with trackers off — and have attempted and failed previous transits — suggests a selective, covert flow channel is operating in parallel to the official blockade.
The Falsified Flag Issue
A separately reported finding: one US-sanctioned tanker operating under a falsified flag in April 2026 illustrates the lengths operators will go to mask Iranian crude origin. This has implications for oil market transparency — official trade data may significantly understate actual Iranian exports during the crisis, which in turn affects the accuracy of supply destruction estimates.
Relevance to Q1/Q2
Supports Q1 Supply Destruction with real-time physical flow data. Relevant to Q2 Price Impact — tracker-off movements are a partial explanation for why physical premiums remain elevated even as diplomatic negotiations continue. The covert flow channel suggests the supply destruction is real but partially hidden from public data.