Date Compiled: 2026-04-16
Type: Scenario Framework — CSIS
Related Questions: Q1 / Q2
Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Publication Date: March 2, 2026
Number of Scenarios: 4
Key Parameter: Escalation level — from tanker interdiction to direct attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure
Overview
CSIS published this four-scenario framework on March 2, 2026 — before the actual conflict began — as a structured mapping of escalation pathways and their oil market consequences. Authored by Clayton Seigle, Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, the framework describes an escalation ladder from maritime interdiction (Scenario 1) through to direct attacks on Arab Gulf oil production and export infrastructure (Scenario 4). The analysis is notable for identifying the "use it or lose it" dilemma that could push Iran toward the most damaging scenario.
Scenarios
Scenario 1: U.S. or Israel Disrupts Iranian Crude Shipments
- Parameter: Blockading or seizing Kharg Island; seizure of Iranian oil tankers
- Key Assumptions: Operation targets only Iranian exports (~1.6 mb/d, all to China); reversibility is high; analogous to U.S. quarantine on Venezuelan oil
- Key Outputs: $10–12/barrel global price increase; China bids for substitute supplies
Scenario 2: Iran Disrupts Arab Gulf Oil Shipping
- Parameter: Fast attack craft, drones, anti-ship missiles, naval mines targeting Gulf export flows
- Key Assumptions: Targets inbound/outbound Hormuz lanes (only 2 miles wide); up to 18 mb/d of non-Iranian crude and refined products at risk; reversible at Tehran's call
- Key Outputs: Price could climb past $90/barrel; retail gasoline well above $3/gallon nationally
Scenario 3: U.S. or Israel Directly Attacks Iranian Oil Facilities
- Parameter: Strike on Kharg Island, offshore platforms, potentially refineries
- Key Assumptions: Iran's 1.6 mb/d exports plus 1.5 mb/d domestic production at risk; protracted damage; markets anticipate further escalation
- Key Outputs: Price likely above $100/barrel; greater than Scenario 1 due to protracted damage and escalation anticipation
Scenario 4: Iran Directly Attacks Arab Gulf Oil Facilities
- Parameter: Attacks on producing fields, gathering/processing nodes, export terminals
- Key Assumptions: Substantial portion of 18 mb/d non-Iranian Gulf exports at risk; Iraq's 3.5 mb/d fully stranded (offshore loading facilities near Iranian territorial waters); active conflict ongoing limits repair access; damage not easily reversed
- Key Outputs: Historic oil price spike potentially exceeding $130/barrel — surpassing the 2022 post-Ukraine-invasion peak when only ~5 mb/d was at risk; false reversibility — extended repair timelines under conflict conditions
Institutional Assessment
CSIS's four-scenario framework serves as both a forward-looking planning tool and a structured description of the actual escalation pathway the crisis followed. The current situation most closely maps to a combination of Scenarios 2 and 3: Hormuz is constrained rather than fully blocked, there has been infrastructure damage, and the ceasefire is fragile. The framework's central strategic insight is the "use it or lose it" dilemma: once the U.S. neutralizes Iran's naval capabilities, Iran faces a choice between surrendering its deterrent or striking Arab Gulf infrastructure directly (Scenario 4). The Saudi East-West Pipeline provides only ~2.4 mb/d of spare capacity — insufficient to offset a Scenario 4 disruption of 18 mb/d. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have zero bypass capacity and are fully exposed to any Hormuz disruption.
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Source
Derived from CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) four-scenario framework analysis of the Hormuz closure geopolitical risk.