Goldman Sachs — 2026 Oil Outlook Scenario Framework

Date Compiled: 2026-04-16

Type: Scenario Framework — Goldman Sachs

Related Questions: Q1 / Q2

Institution: Goldman Sachs

Publication Date: March 23, 2026 (initial revision); April 9, 2026 (trimmed on ceasefire)

Number of Scenarios: 3

Key Parameter: Duration and persistence of Hormuz disruption following April 2026 ceasefire

Overview

Goldman Sachs produced the most dramatic forecast revision cycle in its commodities research history in response to the Hormuz crisis. Starting from a pre-war 2026 Brent baseline of $56/barrel (November 2025), Goldman revised Brent up to $85/b by March 23, then to $90/b on April 9 following a two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire. The April 9 framework presents three distinct scenarios differentiated by whether the ceasefire holds and how long Hormuz flows remain disrupted.

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Ceasefire Holds, Hormuz Reopens

Parameter: Hormuz reopens promptly under ceasefire; disruption resolves quickly
Key Assumptions: Two-week ceasefire holds; normal Hormuz transit resumes; market repricing of risk premium unwinds
Key Outputs: Brent Q2 2026 ~$90/barrel; WTI Q2 2026 ~$87/barrel; full-year 2026 Brent average ~$85/barrel

Scenario 2: Severe — Hormuz Remains Shut One Additional Month

Parameter: Ceasefire collapses; Hormuz flows remain at ~10% of normal for ~21 days beyond April
Key Assumptions: 21 days of low Strait flows at roughly 10% of normal levels; partial but significant disruption persists past the ceasefire window
Key Outputs: Brent Q3 2026 reaches ~$120/barrel; Brent Q4 2026 ~$115/barrel

Scenario 3: General — Disruption Above $100 All Year

Parameter: Broader disruption persists through 2026 without full resolution
Key Assumptions: Ceasefire breaks or is only partially effective; Brent remains above $100/barrel on average for the full year
Key Outputs: Full-year 2026 Brent average above $100/barrel

Institutional Assessment

Goldman's scenario framework reflects a base case post-ceasefire pricing of $90/b Brent — notably more conservative than Morgan Stanley ($110/b) and JPMorgan ($150+). The $56 → $85 → $90 trajectory over five months represents approximately a 60% increase from pre-war baseline, making this the sharpest single-forecast revision cycle in Goldman Sachs commodities history. Goldman has also assigned a 30% probability to a U.S. recession, reflecting the severity of the supply shock even under the optimistic ceasefire scenario. The severe scenario ($120 Brent) maps directly to a 21-day low-flow disruption assumption — if the Islamabad summit (April 10) fails or the ceasefire breaks, Goldman would likely revise Q3/Q4 forecasts upward again.

Source

Derived from Goldman Sachs Global Economics research on oil supply disruption scenarios and geopolitical risk analysis published during the Hormuz closure.

goldman-sachs-scenarios.md