Source: Fortune (reporting on Trafigura Group, JPMorgan, Sankey Research, Gunvor Group)
Date: April 24, 2026
URL: https://fortune.com/2026/04/24/oil-market-forecast-disaster-crude-prices-strait-of-hormuz-opens-now-us-iran-war/
Key Findings
Physical vs. Futures Market Disconnect
- Oil futures have been "totally disconnected from the reality that exists in the physical market"
- WTI remains below $100/barrel; Brent has returned above $100
- Pre-war Persian Gulf oil shipments are only now reaching destinations after 40+ days of Hormuz closure
- Inventories have "started to get scary"
Analyst Forecasts
Paul Sankey (Sankey Research):
- "Over the coming months, this is going to unfortunately deteriorate badly"
- "We can be sure that the next two months is going to be an ongoing, absolute disaster even if you open the straits tomorrow because it's just locked in by virtue of tankers, and the tankers are all in the wrong places"
- Focusing on supply chain breaks: jet fuel in Australia, solvents for chipmaking in Japan
- Countries tapping reserves means remaining available volume is less than data indicates
JPMorgan analysis:
- OECD commercial inventories will hit "operational minimums" between May 9 and May 30
- At operational minimums: "price increases become exponential rather than linear"
- Restart timeline after war ends: ports take 2 months to reopen; tanker crews wait 2-3 weeks to feel safe; production takes 4 months to reach 99% capacity
Frederic Lasserre (Gunvor Group):
- If war drags on another month, markets will hit "tank bottoms"
Trafigura Supply Loss Figures
Saad Rahim (Trafigura Chief Economist):
- Conflict has already caused 1 billion barrels of supply to disappear
- Could grow to 1.5 billion barrels if conflict continues
- "The scale seems to be something where the market can't actually get its head around it"
- "There is the real disconnect between perception and reality right now"
Post-War Restart Timeline
- Ports: 2 months to reopen
- Tanker crews: 2-3 weeks before safe travel through strait
- Production restart: 4 months to reach 99% capacity
- Total restart lag means supply won't quickly normalize even after ceasefire
Related Questions
- Q1: How Long And How Deep Will The Energy Supply Destruction Be?
- Q2: What Price Impact Will This Supply Reduction Have?
Related Articles
Bibliography
- Fortune, "Oil analyst guarantees next few months 'will be an ongoing, absolute disaster' even if Hormuz opens," April 24, 2026. https://fortune.com/2026/04/24/oil-market-forecast-disaster-crude-prices-strait-of-hormuz-opens-now-us-iran-war/