Q1 — Supply Disruption

Question Restated

How long and how deep is the 2026 oil supply disruption? What are the OPEC+ production levels vs. pre-crisis, and what duration scenarios are in play?

Key Data Callouts

• **Supply outage magnitude: 11–13M b/d** — the primary structural fact (HFI Research, Apr 13, 2026)
• **Cumulative supply losses: 360M barrels (March 2026), 440M barrels (April 2026 projected)** — IEA April 2026 Report
• **Hormuz loadings: ~3.8M b/d (April 2026) vs. 20M+ pre-crisis** — IEA April 2026 Report (~80% collapse)
• **OPEC production collapsed 27% MoM:** 28.7M bpd → 20.8M bpd — OPEC April 2026 Report
• **US production: no increase coming** — real-time production feeds confirm no supply response in the pipeline (HFI Research, Apr 15, 2026)
• **US SPR release capacity: ~2.5M b/d** — against an 11+ M b/d outage, inadequate by roughly 5x
• **OPEC+ capex freeze: producers not increasing 2026 programs** — no supply-side relief from major producers regardless of price level
• **US exports ramping + imports falling** — domestic storage being drawn down as flow dynamics shift (HFI Research, Apr 9, 2026)
• **EIA base case: April 2026 resolution** — now appears to be a best-case / low-disruption scenario, not the base case

Confidence: MEDIUM

Rationale: The 11–13M b/d figure comes from a single expert source (HFI Research, Apr 13) and is directionally consistent with the broader signal from US production data, OPEC+ behavior, and the sell-side pricing failure. However, the precise duration and exact production-loss geography are not yet confirmed by a second institutional source. The IEA and OPEC production data (27% MoM drop) provide strong corroboration of the scale. More institutional confirmation needed on outage magnitude and duration before this moves to HIGH confidence.