“Summary — date compiled:...”

“Summary — Institution:...”

“Summary — Institution: Bruegel (European think...”

“CERAWeek 2026 Iran energy conference proceedings and takeaways”

“CSIS senior fellow Clayton Seigle mapped four oil disruption scenarios ahead of any U.S./Israel strike on Iran — from Kharg Island blockade (1.6 mb/d, +$10-12/bbl) to full Gulf closure (21 mb/d, +$50/bbl) — providing the pre-war playbook for how the actual crisis unfolded.”

“US energy major; sold May 5-9 WTI Midland cargo to Moeve at Dated Brent +$21.85 CIF Rotterdam on April 14, 2026, adding to evidence of record physical market premiums in European crude markets.”

“Summary — Institution: Congressional Research Service...”

“Summary — Institution: Federal Reserve Bank of...”

“Summary — Institution: European Commission (DG Energy) /...”

“Key Data Points — - Brent annual average 2026: $96/bbl (revised upward from prior...”

“Summary — Institution: U.S.”

“Summary — Institution: U.S.”

“Summary — Institution: European Commission (DG...”

“Related Articles — Related Institutions: [[GIE]] · [[EU-Commission]] · [[EC-EU-Prepared]] · [[Bruegel]] · [[IndexBox]] ·...”

“The Decision: 400 Million Barrels Coordinated Release — ---...”

“Summary — Institution: Gas Infrastructure Europe...”

“Related Articles — · [[log]] · [[mar-27-2026]] · [[mar-11-2026]] · [[mar-10-2026]] · [[mar-19-2026]] · [[apr-06-2026]] · [[mar-26-2026]] · [[mar-25-2026]] · [[mar-30-2026]] · [[mar-31-2026]] · [[mar-17-2026]] ·...”

“Goldman Sachs revised Brent 2026 average from $56/b pre-war baseline to $85/b (March 22) then $90/b (April 9) — still the most bearish major bank, underestimating the scale and duration of the Hormuz disruption relative to physical market reality.”

“Goldman Sachs predicted Strait of Hormuz traffic would reach 120% of normal levels by May 2026 — a spectacular directional miss, as flows remained severely disrupted; follows their pre-war Brent $56/b baseline error, warranting a downgrade in their Hormuz-flow reliability score.”

“Energy research firm providing real-time physical market analysis. Published critical data on April 14, 2026 showing record WTI Midland premiums into Europe (Dated Brent +$22.80 CIF Rotterdam — all-time high) and supply destruction scenarios projecting a $100/bbl price floor even under optimistic restart assumptions.”

“Summary — Published: May...”

“Chatham House analysis of Saudi Vision and Hormuz threat assessment”

“The IEA's May 2026 Oil Market Report provided the most authoritative quantitative assessment of the Hormuz crisis, estimating 14+ mb/d of shut-in production, cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels, and a record 250 mb inventory drawdown over March–April 2026.”

“The IEA provides the most authoritative multilateral assessment of the Hormuz disruption, documenting the first global oil demand contraction in 6 years (−80 kb/d full-year) and a 400 Mb emergency stock release that proved insufficient against 440 Mb cumulative April supply losses; physical crude traded near $150/bbl versus ~$115/bbl futures.”

“Summary — Institution:...”

“Key Claims — Author: Daniel Byman, Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program, CSIS; Professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign...”

“JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva projected OECD oil inventories could reach 'operational stress levels' by June and minimum operating thresholds by September — ~280M barrels already consumed from strategic buffers — flagging the most acute inventory runway risk of any major bank.”

“The Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee redesignated the entire Persian Gulf as a conflict zone within 48 hours of the February 28 strikes, triggering a fivefold surge in war risk premiums and insurance cancellations that effectively halted commercial shipping through Hormuz — one of the fastest insurance market seizures on record.”

“Wood Mackenzie Middle East recovery timeline analysis”

“Spanish energy company (formerly Cepsa); buyer of WTI Midland cargo from Chevron at Dated Brent +$21.85 CIF Rotterdam on April 14, 2026, illustrating European refiners' scramble for alternative crude supply during the Hormuz crisis.”

“Core Thesis: Diversified Commodities as Portfolio Resilience — ---...”

“Most bullish major investment bank, maintaining $110/b Q2 Brent forecast even after April 7 ceasefire; explicitly rejects ceasefire-driven optimism repricing, citing severely disrupted supply chains, cumulative production losses, pre-conflict inventory depletion, and multi-month normalization lag after reopening.”

“Nature Scientific Reports study on oil supply disruption economic impact”

“Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Issue 52: oil market analysis”

“OPEC's April 2026 report cut Q2 demand forecasts by 500 kb/d to 105.07 mb/d while documenting a 7.9 mb/d March output collapse — the gap between OPEC's demand optimism and supply reality framing the most contested numbers in the crisis.”

“Key OPEC+ Decision — April 5, 2026 JMMC Meeting — ---...”

“The OPEC+ virtual ministerial meeting on May 3, 2026 — the group's first meeting without the UAE — agreed to a symbolic 188,000 barrels per day production increase from the April 2023 voluntary cuts, a gesture widely described as far too modest to offset the 14+ mbd supply loss from the Hormuz Strait closure.”

“Headline Finding: 5 mbd Spare Capacity — ---...”

“Output Directory — ---...”

“How OPEC+ actually works beyond meeting headlines: quota systems, compliance mechanisms, JMMC process, Saudi-Russia dynamics, and the 2026 Hormuz crisis response.”

“US-based energy company; sold May 14-18 WTI Midland cargo to Total at Dated Brent +$22.80 CIF Rotterdam on April 14, 2026 — the highest on record for this premium, illustrating extreme physical market tightness in European crude markets.”

“Rabobank commodity analysis: oil market outlook and food price inflation risks”

“Summary — Institution: Reuters...”

“Reuters reported on April 14, 2026 that European refining margins had turned negative — a rare occurrence — as European refiners faced simultaneously elevated crude prices driven by Asian buyer competition and softening product crack spreads, while US and Asian refiners captured the arbitrage from Atlantic Basin crude flows.”

“Summary — Institution:...”

“Key Finding: Traders Pricing In Prolonged Hormuz Disruption — ---...”

“Soufan Center intelligence report on regional security dynamics”

“Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis of Hormuz disruption and oil market impact”

“French energy major and one of the world's largest oil companies; bought WTI Midland cargo from Phillips 66 at a record Dated Brent +$22.80 CIF Rotterdam premium on April 14, 2026, illustrating Europe's extreme dependence on alternative crude supply during the Hormuz crisis.”

“Swiss-based global commodities trading house; bid for Ekofisk cargo at Dated Brent +$21.70 FOB on April 14, 2026, participating in the record premium environment for physical North Sea crude during the Hormuz crisis.”

“Wood Mackenzie analysis of UAE OPEC exit and long-term demand scenarios”

“Summary — Institution: UN Trade and Development...”

“The world's largest physical oil trader signaled moderate risk pricing (markets betting on Hormuz reopening 'sooner rather than later') and secured $3B in additional credit lines to handle margin calls from volatile moves — a rare admission that top traders collectively missed the initial spike.”

“Vortexa provides real-timeAIS-based vessel tracking and cargo flow data for the global oil and gas markets. During the 2026 Hormuz crisis, Vortexa's platform offered proprietary transits-per-day metrics and stockdraw analysis that became a primary real-time intelligence source for traders and analysts tracking the blockade's impact.”

“Summary — Institution: World Trade Organization (WTO) — Data...”

“Summary — Institution: World Trade Organization (WTO) — Data...”

“Key Finding: 60% Middle East Crude Export Collapse — ---...”

“Key Finding: 80 mtpa Gulf LNG Disruption — Scale Comparable to Russia 2022 — ---...”

“Key Analysis Points — ---...”

“Wood Mackenzie long-term energy demand forecast: 20% growth by 2050”

“Trafigura, JPMorgan, Sankey Research, and Gunvor warn of physical market catastrophe — 1-1.5B barrels lost, OECD inventories hitting operational minimums by May, exponential price increases ahead, 4-month restart lag after ceasefire.”

“Compiled knowledge base for the 2026 oil shock research project”

“CFR analysis of Asia's energy security exposure during the Iran war and Hormuz closure — covers 20-50 day reserve buffers, Japan's nuclear pivot, and structural shifts in Asian energy planning.”