Q3 — Europe Exposure

Question Restated

What's the physical supply impact for Europe? How exposed is European industry, refining, and energy supply to the current disruption?

**European refinery runs: cut by -6M b/d globally (IEA April 2026 Report)** — direct evidence of crude unavailability hitting European refining
**Dated Brent spread +$22.80** — European Brent marker is under severe pressure; European Brent-linked pricing is affected directly
**Global inventories at all-time lows** — European storage is part of the global inventory picture and is not immune to the drawdown
**OPEC production -27% MoM** — Middle Eastern producers (key European suppliers) have collapsed output; Europe faces structural supply tightness from origin
**EU gas storage:** Pre-crisis starting position (October 2025) was ~83% full per EC/ENTSOG data — by April 2026, further depletion likely given ongoing disruption

[[IEA-April-2026-Report]] — European refineries cutting runs -6M b/d globally
[2024-09-13 Eric Nuttall — global inventory depletion and physical demand context](../daily/2024-09-13-ericnuttall.md) (global, not Europe-specific)
[2024-11-12 Eric Nuttall — lowest seasonal inventories in history](../daily/2024-11-12-ericnuttall.md) (global, not Europe-specific)
[[Reuters-Europe-Gas-Scramble]] — Germany/France <25% gas storage (pre-crisis data)
[[Bruegel-Gas-Imports]] — EU structural LNG dependency post-Russian cuts