Auto-generated digest from scripts/track-prices.py at 2026-09-16 19:10:26

Scenario classification: BASELINE

  • US wholesale diesel $202.94/bbl (0–208 band).
  • EU retail €2.460/L → B zone
  • Price below Scenario C overlap band ($250/bbl) — Scenario C unlikely on price alone.

US wholesale diesel

  • $202.94/bbl ($4.832/gal × 42)
  • Observation date: 2026-09-09
  • Source: FRED DDFUELUSGULF (seed: 2026-09-16) (cached)

European retail diesel (Germany)

  • €2.460/L (≈ $449.77/bbl at EUR/USD = 1.1500)
  • Observation date: 2026-09-16
  • Source: https://www.benzinpreis-aktuell.de/
  • Note: EU retail prices include ~50–60% fuel tax; this is not directly comparable to US wholesale.

EUR/USD rate

  • 1.1500 USD per EUR (date: 2026-09-16, source: exchangerate-api.com /v4/latest/EUR)

Next triggers to watch

  • Bab al-Mandab 30-day threshold from EW pipeline cut Sep 10-11 → ~Oct 10-11 for full Scenario B pricing.
  • EW Pipeline repair confirmation by Aramco — would revert toward Scenario D.
  • Houthi attack frequency >8/week sustained 2+ weeks → Scenario B confirmed.
  • Brent >$115/bbl sustained 5 trading days → Scenario B.
  • Hormuz re-escalation (mine-laying, IRGC harassment, US-escort withdrawal) → Scenario C trigger regardless of price band.

Sources

  • FRED DDFUELUSGULF (seed: 2026-09-16) (cached)
  • exchangerate-api.com /v4/latest/EUR
  • https://www.benzinpreis-aktuell.de/