July 1, 2026 — Daily Digest

Status: NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING — Supply Recovery Accelerating, Prices Falling Fast

Key Developments

US-Iran Talks in Doha (July 1)

  • VP Vance: US-Iran talks in Doha "going well"
  • Qatar mediating indirect US-Iran negotiations
  • MoU (June 17) triggered 60-day negotiation period for permanent peace deal

Iran: 40 Million Barrels Exported Since Blockade Lifted

  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: >40 million barrels exported since US lifted naval blockade
  • TankerTrackers.com: Estimates 50 million barrels exported in two weeks via satellite imagery + AIS monitoring
  • Iran selling oil at ~20% premium vs. pre-war prices
  • Iran had exported zero barrels during the two-month blockade

Oil Prices: Brent Below $73

  • Brent near $73/barrel on July 1
  • Down ~40% from April peak of $118/barrel
  • Pre-war price ~$70/barrel — approaching that level

Transit Data

  • 22 vessels transited Hormuz on Sunday (June 29)
  • 27 on Monday (June 30)
  • 40 on Tuesday (July 1)
  • Still well below pre-war ~130/day

Iran-Japan Oil Talks Begin

  • Iran in talks with Japanese companies to buy Iranian oil
  • Japan was major importer before 2018 maximum pressure sanctions
  • Part of Iran's effort to rebuild oil sales network under 60-day sanctions waiver

Sources

  • CNN live updates (July 1)
  • CNBC (July 1): Ghalibaf television interview
  • TankerTrackers.com via Twitter/X
  • ISW-CTP (July 3 report, confirming Japan talks)