July 2, 2026 — Daily Digest¶

Status: SUPPLY SURGE — Hormuz Reopening Faster Than Expected, Market Shifts to Glut Fear¶

Key Developments¶

Hormuz: 35 Tankers Exit — First Time in Pre-War Range¶

• 35 oil and gas tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday (July 2)
• First time returning to within range of pre-war levels
• Morgan Stanley (via Bloomberg) confirmed the figure
• 40 vessels transited on Tuesday (July 1), up from 22 on Sunday

Brent Falls Below $71 — Pre-War Levels¶

• Brent futures: $70.78/barrel ($0.79 or 1.1% drop)
• WTI: $67.74/barrel ($0.84 or 1.2% drop)
• Third consecutive day of ~1% drops
• Brent down >38% from post-war peak of >$126 (April 30)
• Now lower than any point since February 27, 2026 (day before war began)

Oil Shortage → Glut Fear¶

• Morgan Stanley cuts forecasts (second time in two weeks) — warning of severe oversupply
• JPMorgan (Natasha Kaneva): "Regardless of timing, one thing is certain: a wave of oil is about to enter the market... The surge in oil supply is about to collide with a market that, at least for now, simply does not need it"
• 58–68 million barrels of Iranian oil loaded onto ships (in transit or stationary) — >90% with no clear destination
• China slashing imports, tapping stockpiles, importing from Russia/Brazil/Venezuela instead of Middle East

Iran Production: 1.9 MMBbl/d in Late June¶

• Iranian daily production as high as 1.9 MMBbl/d in final 10 days of June
• Recovery faster than expected

Saudi Arabia Ramping Up¶

• Saudi Arabia has ramped up oil shipments through Hormuz since US-Iran deal (CNBC, July 2)

Sources¶

• Bloomberg (via multiple outlets)
• Al Jazeera (July 2: "Oil prices fall to levels not seen since start of US-Israel war on Iran")
• Al Jazeera (July 2: "With Hormuz reopened, has the oil shortage turned into a glut?")
• CNBC (July 1 and July 2)
• JPMorgan Commodity Strategy note (via Yahoo Finance/finance.yahoo.com)