July 3, 2026 — Daily Digest¶

Status: DUAL TRACK — Production Recovering Rapidly While Iran Rebuilds Capabilities¶

Key Developments¶

OPEC: +3.3 MMBbl/d in June (Biggest Monthly Jump Ever)¶

• OPEC-11: 19.43 MMBbl/d in June — up 3.3 MMBbl/d from May (lowest since 2000)
• Kuwait and Iran biggest gainers
• Saudi Arabia, Iraq also boosted output
• Key caveat: Still well below pre-war levels; much of recovery = restart of shut-in volumes
• Tanker traffic still below pre-war; insurers and shipowners cautious after vessel attacks

Ali Khamenei Funeral; New Supreme Leader Absent¶

• Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei funeral held in Tehran
• Mojtaba Khamenei (new Supreme Leader, reportedly injured in US strike that killed him) did NOT appear publicly
• IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi (also reportedly injured) made first public appearance

Iran Fortifying Nuclear Sites¶

• Satellite imagery (commercially available, per ISIS): Iranian construction vehicles at western tunnel entrances of Kolang Gaz La Mountain nuclear site (June 21–30)
• ISW-CTP: Iran using 60-day MoU period to fortify defenses at nuclear facilities
• Qom Friday Prayer Leader: Iran using this period to rebuild defense capabilities; expressed doubts about negotiations

Hormuz Toll Dispute: Oman Proposes Voluntary Fund; Iran Wants Mandatory¶

• Oman proposed voluntary "maritime services" fund; Iran rejected and wants mandatory fees
• ISW: Status quo (Iran gets economic relief without nuclear concessions) is favorable for Iran
• "US is losing leverage in nuclear negotiations" — ISW-CTP assessment

Regional: Hezbollah-Israel¶

• IDF and Hezbollah engaging in southern Lebanon
• Hezbollah fighter injured 3 IDF reservists (small arms, Bint Jbeil)
• IDF struck 10 Hezbollah sites in response

Sources¶

• Oilprice.com (Julianne Geiger, July 3): OPEC production data
• ISW-CTP Iran Update Special Report (July 3, 2026)
• ISIS satellite imagery analysis (July 2)