July 7, 2026 — Daily Digest

Status: MAJOR ESCALATION — MOU in Crisis, Oil Sanctions License Revoked

Key Developments

US Launches "Powerful Strikes" Against Iran After Ship Attacks

  • US launched strikes against Iranian targets following attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Iranian media: most US sites hit were civilian — fishing piers, telecommunications tower
  • Strike on Sirik (Hormozgan province) — several people hospitalized

Iran Strikes Back: 85 US Military Targets Hit in Bahrain and Kuwait

  • IRGC announces it struck 85 US military installations in Bahrain (Port Salman/US Fifth Fleet area) and Kuwait (Ali Al Salem Air Base)
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down — was attempting to interfere with IRGC operation
  • Air raid sirens blared twice in Bahrain
  • Kuwait confronted hostile drone and missile attacks
  • Iranian media: IRGC describing this as "initial" retaliation

US Revokes Iran's Oil Export License — Key Concession Withdrawn

  • White House revoked General License X — the sanctions waiver allowing Iran to sell crude oil
  • Revocation effective immediately following tanker attacks
  • General License had authorized Iranian crude production and sales through ~August 21, 2026
  • Had freed ~140M stranded barrels and ~$12B in frozen assets
  • Javier Blas: "rolls back 40+ years of sanctions"
  • Iran had exported ~40–50M barrels since MOU signing; ~58M barrels currently at sea (UANI)

Qatar Summons Iranian Ambassador; Qatar, Saudi Arabia Condemn Attacks

  • Qatar: Tehran bears full legal responsibility for attack on Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat
  • Saudi Arabia: holds Iran fully responsible for damage to Wedyan tanker
  • Qatar was key mediator in US-Iran talks

Iran: US Violated MOU by Rejecting Iran's Role in Hormuz Management

  • Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee: US violated MOU by rejecting Iran's role in managing Strait traffic
  • Iran's Supreme National Security Council debating whether to continue talks
  • Qatar had planned to reschedule talks after funeral ceremonies ended July 9

Oman Route: Inbound Tanker Flows Slowing to "Trickle" — HFI Research

  • HFI Research: "inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle" following IRGC missile attacks
  • Oman lane "will be heavily contested in the coming days"
  • HFI: "Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. There's no in-between."
  • Since June 17, ~150M barrels exited Hormuz (Energy Aspects) — ~8M b/d, still ~5M b/d below pre-war

Brent: $73.29/barrel (July 7 morning)

  • +$0.93 from previous morning
  • +$2.80 year-over-year
  • Oil up ~6% in post-market activity on July 6 after ship attack news
  • Month-ago comparison: $95.60 (−23.3%)

Sources

  • Naked Capitalism (July 8, 2026): "Trump Declares MOU Over After Biggest US-Iran Exchange of Strikes"
  • Reuters (July 7, 2026): Iran fires missiles at commercial ships
  • Al Jazeera Live Blog (July 7–8, 2026)
  • UANI Iran Shipping Update (July 7, 2026)
  • HFI Research Twitter / Memo (July 7, 2026)
  • Fortune Oil Price tracker (July 7, 2026)
  • Bloomberg (via search)