July 8, 2026 — Daily Digest¶

Status: OPEN CRISIS — MOU Collapsed, Full Kinetic Exchange, Price Shock Reversal¶

Trump (at NATO summit, Ankara): "I think it's over... It's just a waste of time dealing with them"
"We hit them very hard last night"
"Every time you hit, we hit"
"I don't like them. They're evil people. It's the denuclearization of Iran. And we're going to denuke it"
Later walkback signal: "I might let my wonderful negotiators keep talking"
Iranian official (via Iran International): Supreme National Security Council has not yet decided whether to continue talks
Qatar had been arranging next round of talks after July 9 (end of funeral ceremonies)

IRGC statement: struck 85 US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drones
Targets: Port Salman (Fifth Fleet area), Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuwait)
MQ-9 drone shot down during operation
Iranian media: operations described as "initial" retaliation — suggesting more to come

US Central Command confirmed hitting more than 80 targets inside Iran
Strikes described as response to attacks on three ships in Strait of Hormuz on July 6–7

Reports: IRGC launched anti-ship cruise missiles and multiple drones at US warships in Sea of Oman
At least two anti-ship cruise missiles confirmed launched
Status of interceptions/damage: unconfirmed at time of reporting

Brent: $78.17/barrel at 8:30am ET (Fortune) — +$4.88 from previous morning
Trading Economics: Brent peaked at $80/barrel intra-day (surge of up to 7%)
July 8 close: $78.30/barrel (Trading Economics) — +5.58% in one day
The Kobeissi Letter: "It's official: Brent crude oil prices are back above $80/barrel"
WTI +5%–6%; S&P 500 −1%; Dow −1.3%; Nasdaq −1.5%; Gold −2.5%
Sharp reversal of "glut thesis" that had driven Brent below $70 last week

This is the sharpest single-day reversal since the MOU was signed
OPEC+ had been pumping more oil expecting stable ceasefire — now facing re-disrupted Hormuz
Consensus view (HFI Research, Javier Blas): "either oil prices move violently higher, or any semblance of a normal market is thrown out the window"
Banks had been modeling $60 Brent for year-end — now facing revised forecasts

Doha talks stalled on implementation of MOU terms — Iran insists US must meet written conditions first
New round was to begin after July 9 funeral period — now uncertain
France: "very concerned"; Germany summoned Iranian ambassador

Naked Capitalism (July 8, 2026): "Trump Declares MOU Over"
Al Jazeera Live Blog (July 8, 2026)
The Kobeissi Letter Twitter (July 8, 2026)
Fortune Oil Price (July 8, 2026)
Trading Economics Brent data (July 8, 2026)
HFI Research (July 7–8, 2026)
Blockonomi (July 8, 2026): Gold plunges as MOU declared over