Source Overview

Rystad Energy market update reported via Rigzone on June 11, 2026. Rystad is a leading independent energy research firm. Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, provides the geopolitical risk assessment. This is a Tier 2 source providing updated geopolitical probability assessment and worst-case price scenario. Also includes commentary from SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop and Zaye Capital Markets CIO Naeem Aslam.

Key Claims & Data Points

Worst-Case: $150/bbl

  • Worst case $150/bbl if US-Iran hostilities resume: Rystad Energy estimated that if US-Iran "hostilities were to resume in earnest," oil prices could "move towards $150 per barrel."
  • Uncertainty elevated: "At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode."

Polymarket Deal Probability ~27%

  • Polymarket deal probability ~27%: Polymarket bets on a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 are now at just 27 percent — per SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.
  • Bar is low: Schieldrop highlighted that "reopening" in the Polymarket bet means "one week with average transits of 60 ships per day or more." Normal transits are closer to 135 ships/day. "So a 27 percent chance in that transits reach just half the normal rate, and it doesn't need to be permanent. Just one week or more. So the bar is not even very high."

Brent Price Action (June 10-11)

  • Brent briefly touched below $90 on Tuesday: Per SEB, Brent briefly touched below the $90/bbl line on Tuesday (June 9 or 10).
  • Wednesday range $90.77–$95.00/bbl: On Wednesday, Brent traded in a range of $90.77–$95.00/bbl before closing with a daily gain of 1.8% at $93.1/bbl "on the back of renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf."
  • Thursday: touched $95.5, settled $93.5: On Thursday morning, Brent traded as high as $95.5/bbl but couldn't sustain bullish momentum, trading at $93.5/bbl.
  • Volatile $90–$95.5 range: The overall market is swinging between $90 and $95.5/bbl on geopolitical headlines.

Rystad's Prior Probability Assessment

  • Near-term deal probability narrowed from ~40% to lower: Rystad had previously assessed a ~40% probability of a near-term deal a few weeks ago. That probability has narrowed.
  • "Direction of travel now more uncertain": "The next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle."
  • Volatility likely to remain elevated: "Oil price volatility is likely to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic channels are regaining traction."

Trump Comments Feeding Volatility

  • Zaye Capital Markets CIO Naeem Aslam: Trump's comments about hitting Iran again, demanding a stronger Iran deal, and confirming US military support for oil movement through Hormuz create "two opposing market forces."
  • Strike risk → supports crude prices (traders fear supply disruption)
  • US control/military support → caps panic buying if market believes barrels will keep flowing
  • "This is the main reason oil is swinging rather than moving in a straight line."

Significance

Rystad's $150/bbl worst case is consistent with the Morgan Stanley worst-case scenario, providing independent corroboration. The Polymarket 27% figure is a novel market-derived probability indicator for the KB — it quantifies the market's probabilistic assessment of Hormuz reopening on a near-real-time basis. The ~40% → 27% narrowing of deal probability is itself a significant signal of deteriorating diplomatic outlook.