OPEC+ Countries Say They Will Expand Monthly Oil Production

Al Jazeera | July 6, 2026

Summary

OPEC+ announced its fifth consecutive monthly production increase of 188,000 barrels per day (b/d) from August, with seven member countries participating. The decision reflects optimism about Hormuz reopening and comes despite Brent prices having fallen to pre-war levels (~$72/bbl). Analysts noted the quotas are largely "symbolic" while Hormuz disruption persists.

Key Details

The Five Consecutive Monthly Increases

  • July through November: +411,000 b/d cumulative (across five months)
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman participating

OPEC+ Production Collapse During War

  • Pre-war (February 2026): 42.77 million b/d
  • May 2026: 33.13 million b/d (Hormuz blockade maxed out regional storage)
  • Recovery: gradual as Hormuz reopened post-MOU

Analyst Views

  • Fabien Yip (IG, Sydney): "Actual barrels have been constrained for months by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, falling well short of the quota... Saudi Arabia has more than doubled the shipping volume since June 17 than the prior three months combined"
  • Neil Crosby (Sparta Commodities): OPEC quotas "essentially meaningless" short-term; "If and when the Hormuz issue is sustainably solved, we can start to think more carefully about what the group needs"
  • Brent (July 6): ~$72/bbl — below pre-war settlement price of $72.48 (Feb 27, day before war began)

Hormuz Traffic Data

  • July 2: 38 confirmed transits (MarineTraffic) vs. ~130 pre-war
  • July 1: 48 transits
  • Since June 17 MOU: ~150M barrels exited Hormuz (Energy Aspects estimate)

Implications

The production increases were announced into a market that had priced a glut scenario — OPEC+ was accelerating output precisely as the geopolitical situation that had removed supply was deteriorating again. Within 48 hours, the Hormuz situation would deteriorate sharply, reversing the glut thesis.