Chatham House — The Next Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Be Even Worse

Source: Chatham House — June 18, 2026 (most recent source in KB)
URL: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/06/next-strait-hormuz-crisis-could-be-even-worse

The Structural Risk Argument

The core thesis: the current deal solves the acute crisis but not the underlying structural vulnerability. Iran retains the ability to close Hormuz again — the fundamental geopolitical leverage that caused this crisis is unchanged.

Key framing: the next crisis could be even worse because:
1. Global inventories are at historic lows (drawn down during this crisis)
2. Strategic reserves in importing nations are depleted
3. The same disruption hitting depleted storage is more damaging than it would have been in 2025

The Bab al-Mandab Compounding Scenario

If the deal frays AND Houthi forces simultaneously disrupt Bab al-Mandab (the other critical chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea), the two disruptions combined would be described as "disastrous." This compound scenario is what the forward-looking risk framing is built around.

Why This Matters for the KB

Most reopening coverage treats the deal as a return to normal. This Chatham House piece is the most prominent institutional voice saying: this is a fragile reprieve, not a return to normality. The structural vulnerability that caused the crisis — Iran's control over the strait's southern shore and its geopolitical incentives to use that control — is unchanged.

This is analytically important for the KB's framing: the IEA 2027 surplus picture and the Trafigura "complexity premium narrowing" both assume the Hormuz routing becomes reliably available. Chatham House is saying that assumption is fragile.

Concepts

Ingested 2026-06-18. Source: Chatham House.