CSIS — "If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios"¶

date compiled: 2026-04-14
institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
type: think-tank
description: CSIS senior fellow Clayton Seigle mapped four oil disruption scenarios ahead of any U.S./Israel strike on Iran — from Kharg Island blockade (1.6 mb/d, +$10-12/bbl) to full Gulf closure (21 mb/d, +$50/bbl) — providing the pre-war playbook for how the actual crisis unfolded.
author: Clayton Seigle, Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics
source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/if-trump-strikes-iran-mapping-oil-disruption-scenarios
source date: March 2, 2026
questions addressed: Q1, Q2

q1-supply-destruction · q2-price-impact · historical-oil-shocks

The Four Scenarios¶

Scenario 1: U.S. or Israel Disrupts Iranian Crude Oil Shipments¶

Mechanism: Blockading or seizing Kharg Island (principal Iranian oil loading facility) and seizing oil tankers transporting Iranian crude
Volume at risk: Up to 1.6 mb/d of Iranian crude exports — all to China
Price impact: $10–$12/bbl global price increase (China bidding for substitute supplies)
Reversibility: Yes — like the U.S. quarantine on Venezuelan oil shipments

Scenario 2: Iran Disrupts Arab Gulf Oil Shipping¶

Mechanism: Fast attack craft, drones, anti-ship missiles, naval mines targeting Gulf export flows transiting Hormuz (inbound/outbound lanes only 2 miles wide)
Volume at risk: Up to 18 mb/d of non-Iranian crude oil and refined petroleum products
Price impact: Could climb past $90/bbl; retail gasoline well above $3/gal nationally
Reversibility: Yes — Tehran could call off at any time; global forces could neutralize threats

Scenario 3: U.S. or Israel Directly Attacks Iranian Oil Facilities¶

Targets: Kharg Island (ship loading equipment, storage tanks, subsea pipelines), offshore production platforms, and (less likely) refineries
Volume at risk: Iran's 1.6 mb/d exports + 1.5 mb/d domestic production (if platforms/fields targeted) + domestic transportation fuels (if refineries damaged)
Price impact: Likely above $100/bbl — greater than Scenario 1 due to (1) protracted damage and (2) anticipation of Scenario 4 escalation
Key choke points: Ghurreh booster station, Ganaveh manifold station, subsea pipelines

Scenario 4: Iran Directly Attacks Arab Gulf Oil Facilities¶

Targets: Producing fields, gathering/processing nodes, export terminals
Volume at risk: A substantial portion of 18 mb/d of non-Iranian Gulf exports; millions more in domestic crude feedstocks and refined product supply
Price impact: Could lead to a historic oil price spike, potentially higher than $130/bbl touched in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine — when the oil supply at risk was approximately 5 mb/d
Critical vulnerability: Iraq's entire Gulf export flow of 3.5 mb/d relies on offshore loading facilities very close to Iranian territorial waters; similar offshore platforms took months to repair after November 2025 Ukrainian strike on CPC terminal (500 kb/d offline for months)
Reversibility: False — heavy damage to offshore platforms or onshore facilities could take extended time to repair, especially with active conflict ongoing

Hormuz Bypass Potential: Confirmed as Very Limited¶

Route	Capacity	Current Use	Spare Capacity
Saudi East-West Pipeline (Yanbu)	5 mb/d	~800 kb/d exports + ~1.8 mb/d to Saudi refineries	~2.4 mb/d (vs. Saudi's typical 6 mb/d from Gulf terminals — less than half can be rerouted)
UAE Pipeline to Fujairah	~1 mb/d	~1 mb/d already via Fujairah	Remaining third (~1 mb/d) stranded in Hormuz closure
Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar	No bypass	—	0 — fully stranded
Qatar LNG	10 bcf/d	No bypass	0 — fully stranded

Key finding: Only Saudi Arabia has meaningful bypass capacity (2.4 mb/d spare). Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have zero bypass capacity — their exports are fully hostage to Hormuz transit.

Key Strategic Insight: Iran's "Use It or Lose It" Dilemma¶

CSIS analysis describes a potential escalation ladder:

U.S./Israel starts with Scenario 1 (disrupts Iranian shipments) → Iran responds with Scenario 2 (disrupts Arab Gulf shipping)
U.S. seeks to neutralize Iran's naval/shore anti-ship capabilities → Iran left with only Scenario 4 (attacks Arab Gulf oil facilities) as deterrent
Iran faces "use it or lose it" dilemma → risk of miscalculation leading to Scenario 4 as Iran's "last card"
Scenario 4 → U.S. implements Scenario 3 (attacks Iranian oil facilities) → seeks outright regime defeat/destruction

Scenario 4 is the outer bound — it represents the escalation ceiling and defines the upper bound of the price scenarios ($130+).

Relevance to Current Crisis¶

The CSIS analysis was published March 2, 2026 — before the actual conflict began. The current situation most closely maps to Scenarios 2/3 combined: Hormuz is constrained (not fully closed), there has been infrastructure damage, and the ceasefire is fragile. Scenario 4 remains the named outer bound if the ceasefire collapses and Iran escalates to attacking Arab Gulf infrastructure directly.