The MOU Is Paying Off Early for Iran

Foreign Policy | July 2, 2026

Summary

Two weeks after signing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Iran had already exported approximately 40 million barrels of oil — generating significant revenue — while the US had provided written commitments to release billions in frozen assets. The Strait of Hormuz was moving ~40 ships/day (up from zero during the war) but remained far below pre-war levels of 100–140/day. The Doha talks were bogged down, with Iran insisting the US meet all written MOU conditions before nuclear negotiations could advance.

Key Data

Iranian Oil Exports Post-MOU

  • Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: 40 million barrels exported since MOU signing (June 17)
  • Implied rate: ~3M b/d — higher than pre-war Iranian exports
  • Some oil from "floating storage" (oil stored on stationary tankers during the war)
  • ~58M barrels currently at sea (UANI estimate as of July 7)
  • Revenue estimate: $4–5 billion (at $70–80/bbl)

The General License Problem

  • General License X expires in late August 2026
  • Most countries, banks, and refiners "leery of dealing with sanctioned entities until they have real clarity"
  • Most Iranian oil going to usual buyers (China)
  • Uncertainty about post-August authorization is limiting Iran's market

Doha Talks Status (as of July 2)

  • Talks indirect, via Qatar
  • Iran insists: US must meet all written MOU conditions before nuclear talks can begin
  • US position: want to start "chewing on the bone" of nuclear program
  • Iran position: implementation of MOU comes first

Assessment: The MOU Was Imbalanced

"The text is drafted in such a way that I have been calling it a 'memo of misunderstanding.'"
— Miad Maleki, sanctions expert, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

"This is Iran's way. On certain things, like sanctions relief, they know what they want, while their phased commitments are very vague."
— Miad Maleki

Key imbalance:
- US gave: Sanctions relief, frozen asset release, written commitments on Hormuz management
- Iran gave: Vague commitment to "control" Hormuz — but the agreement specified management would be under IRGC Navy

This structural flaw — US giving leverage away before getting denuclearization commitments — would become critical as the ceasefire frayed in early July.

Hormuz Traffic Data

  • ~40 ships/day entering/exiting Gulf — up from near-zero during war
  • But far below pre-war ~125/day
  • More ships transiting with transponders on (defying Iranian threats, remaining visible)
  • Benchmark oil prices: ~$70/bbl (falling, down from ~$126 peak)

The MOU's problems would become fully apparent by July 6–8, when Iran resumed attacks on ships and Trump declared the deal "over."