date compiled: 2026-04-14
institution: Goldman Sachs
type: investment-bank
description: Goldman Sachs revised Brent 2026 average from $56/b pre-war baseline to $85/b (March 22) then $90/b (April 9) — still the most bearish major bank, underestimating the scale and duration of the Hormuz disruption relative to physical market reality.
sources: Reuters (March 22, 2026), Reuters (April 9, 2026), OilPrice.com, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance

q1-supply-destruction · q2-price-impact · synthesis · morgan-stanley-oil-scenarios-2026

Key Revision Timeline

November 2025 — Baseline (Pre-War)

  • Goldman pre-war Brent 2026 average: $56/b (original baseline before Hormuz conflict)
  • This baseline was proven dramatically wrong by subsequent events

March 22/23, 2026 — First Major Revision

  • Goldman raised 2026 Brent average forecast: From $77/b to $85/b (+$8)
  • Goldman WTI forecast raised: From $72/b to $79/b
  • Trigger: Growing market fears of U.S./Israel military action against Iran; Hormuz disruption risk pricing in
  • Published: Reuters, March 22, 2026

April 9, 2026 — Second Revision (Trimmed on Ceasefire)

  • Goldman trimmed Q2 2026 Brent forecast: To $90/b (from $85)
  • Goldman trimmed Q2 2026 WTI forecast: To $87/b
  • Trigger: U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire; market interpreted as bullish-to-neutral shift
  • Published: Reuters, April 9, 2026

April 9 Scenario Framework (Post-Ceasefire)

Scenario Brent WTI Notes
Ceasefire holds, Hormuz reopens ~$90/Q2 ~$87/Q2 Base case post-ceasefire
Severe: Hormuz stays shut 1 more month $120/Q3, $115/Q4 — 21 days at ~10% normal flows
General: Brent above $100 all year $100+ avg — If disruption persists

Key assumption for severe scenario: 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz flows at roughly 10% of normal levels.

Key Data Point: $56 → $85 → $90 Trajectory

The trajectory from $56/b (November 2025 pre-war baseline) → $85/b (March 23 revision) → $90/b (April 9) is itself significant institutional data. Goldman Sachs revised Brent up by approximately $29–34/b from pre-war baseline to immediate post-ceasefire forecast — a ~60% increase in the space of 4–5 months, reflecting the most dramatic forecast revision cycle in Goldman Sachs commodities research history.

Goldman explicitly acknowledges the pre-war consensus of ~$56/b was wrong.

Comparison to Other Institutions (Updated Apr 14)

Institution Q2 2026 Brent Full-Year 2026 Avg Notes
Goldman Sachs $90/b ~$85/b (raised from $77) Trimmed on ceasefire; $120 severe scenario
Morgan Stanley $110/b $100/b Most bullish; maintained despite ceasefire
JPMorgan War scenario $150/b+ ~$100/b (partial de-escalation) Ceiling $150/b if disruptions persist past mid-May
IEA Physical crude near $150/bbl — Physical-futures disconnect acute
OIES $116/b April peak $92/b avg Full-year 2026

Key Insight

Goldman's severe scenario ($120) maps to their 21-day disruption assumption. The market is currently pricing in a reasonably fast resolution — which keeps Goldman's risk premium contained at $90. If Islamabad (Apr 10) fails or the ceasefire breaks, Goldman would likely revise their Q3/Q4 forecasts upward. However, Goldman is notably more conservative than Morgan Stanley ($110) and JPMorgan ($150+) on the post-ceasefire outlook.

synthesis · price-elasticity · iea-april-2026 · morgan-stanley-oil-forecast-april-2026 · jpmorgan-oil-forecast-2026