The Consensus Is Wrong About The Oil Market¶

HFI Research | July 7, 2026

Summary¶

HFI Research warns that the market consensus — that Hormuz will smoothly return to normal and create a supply glut — is wrong. Following IRGC missile attacks on ships in the Oman route, inbound tanker flows have slowed to "a trickle." The Oman bypass route, estimated to handle 6–8M b/d, is now "heavily contested" just as it was becoming the primary exit route for Gulf oil.

Key Analysis¶

Oman Route: Heavily Contested¶

"As expected, the Oman route will be heavily contested in the coming days. The inbound tanker flows have slowed to a trickle and with the latest attack from IRGC using missiles (previously drones), the situation appears to be escalating."
— HFI Research Twitter, July 7, 2026

Hormuz Flow Data¶

• Since June 17 MOU: ~150 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz (Energy Aspects estimate)
• Flow rate: ~8M b/d
• Including bypass routes (East-West Pipeline + Abu Dhabi Pipeline): ~13M b/d total
• Pre-war level: ~18–20M b/d
• Shortfall: ~5M b/d even at best post-MOU flow

The Two Bypass Routes¶

HFI Core Thesis¶

"Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn't. There's no in-between."

The market had been pricing a smooth Hormuz reopening — expecting the ~5M b/d shortfall to resolve over weeks/months. The IRGC attacks on the Oman route shatter this assumption: Iran has demonstrated it can target vessels even when transits are nominally allowed.

Historical Context¶

HFI had previously written (June 23): "The Strait Of Hormuz Isn't Going Back To The Way It Was" — arguing that the conflict has permanently changed the strategic calculus of Hormuz transit.

Note¶

This article is behind a paywall for full detail. Summary based on publicly available abstract and Twitter thread.