Overview

HFI Research is an energy-sector research firm that provides real-time analysis of physical oil markets, with a focus on spreads, differentials, and supply-demand dynamics. During the 2026 Hormuz crisis, HFI Research published critical data documenting record physical market premiums and supply destruction scenarios.

Physical Market Analysis (April 14, 2026)

On April 14, 2026, HFI Research published physical crude market data showing unprecedented tightness in European markets:

Record WTI Midland Premiums into Europe

  • Phillips 66 sold May 14-18 WTI Midland cargo to Total at Dated Brent +$22.80 CIF Rotterdam — described as the highest on record
  • Chevron sold May 5-9 WTI Midland cargo to Moeve at Dated Brent +$21.85 CIF Rotterdam
  • Trafigura bid for Ekofisk cargo at Dated Brent +$21.70 FOB; Shell offered Ekofisk at Dated Brent +$21.55 FOB
  • These premiums translate to approximately Dated Brent +$19.90 on an FOB basis for the Phillips 66 deal

Supply Destruction and Price Floor Scenario

HFI Research also circulated analysis from OpenSquareCap projecting:
- 800M barrels shut-in (conservative scenario)
- ~150M barrels effectively lost (20% of shut-in volume)
- Even under an optimistic "all flows resume next week" scenario: $100/bbl price floor
- This confirmed sustained price elevation even under best-case restart conditions

Significance

These data points provided direct evidence that physical supply scarcity was far exceeding what futures markets were pricing, with European refineries paying record premiums to compete for U.S. crude — acute evidence of supply destruction during the hormuz-closure.

References

  • Daily Brief: Apr 14, 2026
  • Tweet: @HFI_Research (April 14, 2026) — physical market data--- institutions/HFI-Research.md

Source

Compiled from oil-shock-monitor-kb daily briefs and institutional sources.