Crisis Timeline: The Strait of Hormuz War 2026¶
Hormuz Strait Monitor | Last updated: July 5, 2026
Crisis at a Glance¶
- 127+ days since war began
- 42 days left in 60-day window
- ~25 vessels transiting per day (vs ~110 pre-war)
- ~$120 peak Brent crude / barrel
Key Timeline Events (Post-June 24)¶
July 4: US July 4 Holiday¶
- Talks in recess; 17 days into 60-day window; 43 days remaining before August 17 deadline
- Transit volumes ~25/day; war risk insurance elevated; Western carriers on Cape of Good Hope routing
July 3: UK-France Joint Statement¶
- UK and France stand ready to deploy Multinational Military Mission
- UK Parliament briefing confirms Khamenei-Pezeshkian split on MOU
- MOU explicitly: toll-free passage "60 days only"
July 2: Doha Talks — No Nuclear Progress¶
- Nuclear issue entirely unaddressed
- Ghalibaf: "Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions"
- $300 billion reconstruction fund confirmed (per NPR)
- Iran will charge fees after 60-day window (~August 17)
July 1: Doha Talks Resume¶
- Indirect US-Iran talks continue in Qatar; nuclear question not on agenda
- Vance says talks "going well"
- Germany's defence minister: Germany won't join mine-clearing (Iran refuses international assistance)
June 30: Traffic Rebounds to 40 Crossings¶
- 10 of 40 using southern Omani route (US Navy-coordinated)
- Oman proposes Strait fee plan (NYT): Iran and Oman would jointly charge tolls
June 29: France-Iran Mine Dispute; Israel Warns of War Resuming¶
- France-Oman mine-clearing plan rejected by Iran (MOU says demining is Iran's responsibility)
- Israel warns wider war could resume within two days if nuclear talks fail
June 28: Iran Skips Technical Talks; Assessments Underway¶
- Iran boycotts talks, citing unmet MOU conditions
- Supreme Leader's office: still assessing whether Washington has fulfilled commitments
June 27: US Strikes Iran Again After Second Ship Attack¶
- Iran attacked M/T Kiku; US struck 10 Iranian military targets
- Bahrain sirens activated; Iran struck US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
June 26: First US Strike Since MoU¶
- After drone attack on M/T Ever Lovely; US retaliatory strike
June 25: Record 20 Million Barrels/24 Hours¶
- New single-day record for oil throughput; vessel counts still at ~1/3 of pre-war
Current Status¶
- Ceasefire holding at sea, but under severe strain
- Two attack-strike cycles since June 17 MoU
- Nuclear programme entirely unaddressed in Doha talks
- Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire fragile; potential deal-breaker
- Hormuz partially reopened — toll-free for 60 days from June 17
- After August 17: Iran-Oman joint tolling regime expected