Javier Blas: China Giveth and China Taketh Away¶
Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) | Twitter | July 7, 2026
Tweet¶
"COLUMN: China giveth and China taketh away. Oil won't rise to $100 a barrel again this year or drop to $50 in 2027 if China keeps behaving as the rational energy trader we've seen in recent months."
Context¶
This tweet was posted before the July 8 MOU collapse and price surge. Javier Blas — co-author of "The World Oil Cycle" and senior columnist at Bloomberg Opinion — was describing how Chinese demand behavior was the swing factor for oil prices in both directions.
Pre-Escalation Blas Assessment (July 1–7)¶
Blas had been noting:
- The "ketchup effect" may be inflating Iranian exports (drawing down inventories)
- June oil exports >95% of pre-war levels (from inventories)
- China was the key variable — maintaining rational energy trading behavior
Updated Note (July 8)¶
Following Trump's MOU declaration and the surge to $78–80/bbl, Blas's $100 ceiling call remains intact for now, but the $60 floor call from bank analysts is now clearly wrong. The China demand variable that was pointing toward a glut has been overwhelmed by the geopolitical supply disruption variable.