JPMorgan First Oil Price Forecast in 2 Months¶

Source: Rigzone — May 13, 2026
Author: Andreas Exarheas (Rigzone), based on JPMorgan report by Natasha Kaneva

Price Forecasts¶

Key Insights¶

1. No Modern Analogue for This Shock¶

JPMorgan deliberately refrained from publishing price targets for two months because "within that dataset [modern oil futures, ~25-30 years], there is no true analogue for a disruption of this magnitude." The closest comparable events (1956 Suez Crisis) predate modern oil futures markets.

2. Four Mechanisms Shaping Price Formation¶

• Starting point matters — Market entered 2026 with swollen inventories (fair value ~$60), unlike 2022 when starting from deficit
• Duration dominates scale — "A temporary shock, even a large one, can be absorbed. A prolonged disruption cannot."
• Nature of shock — This is not price-led demand adjustment; demand is being removed through availability constraints
• Barrel redistribution — More dislocation showing up in refined product cracks, allowing crude benchmarks to remain lower than supply shock size implies

3. Operational Stress Timeline¶

• OECD commercial inventories on track to approach operational stress levels by early June
• Rationing could extend the draw toward June 30 but at cost of reduced consumption, lower refinery runs, and broader economic slowdown

4. Refined Products Crisis¶

• Jet fuel prices nearly doubled across Asia, Europe, US
• Jet cracks widened to $80-100/bbl over crude
• S&P Global expects global refinery runs to decline 5.2 mb/d YoY in Q2 (twice the "Great Recession" decline)
• "We have now crossed the Rubicon" — Daniel Evans, S&P Global

5. Base Case¶

Strait reopens in June — anchored on June 1 with clear, credible announcement ratified by both sides (e.g., UN Security Council statement).

Significance¶

JPMorgan's "tank bottom" framing is the most concrete timing call from a major bank. The insight that crude may stabilize while product cracks widen is crucial for understanding the physical vs. financial oil market disconnect. The historical framing (1,000+ years, never closed) underscores the unprecedented nature.