Iran War: Vance Confirms Plan to Use "Deal" as Minsk-Type Pause to Restock Fuel (and Arms); US Ostentatiously Failing to Implement MOU¶

naked capitalism | July 1, 2026

Summary¶

JD Vance is bragging that the MOU was merely a device intended to bring Iran to heel, and if that did not work, it would still buy time for the US to restock its oil supplies and weapons. Russian officials had warned that Iran may have fallen for a Minsk-type "deal." The US is complying with the MOU only in areas that advance its interest.

Key Points¶

US Strategy: Minsk-Type Pause¶

• JD Vance confirmed the MOU was intended to buy time for US to restock oil and arms
• Russia had warned Iran may have fallen for a Minsk-type "deal"
• The US is complying with the MOU only in areas that advance its interest (allowing Iranian oil out)

Shipping Update¶

• Hormuz traffic: 34 verified crossings on June 30, evenly split by direction (Kpler)
• Kpler shows broad mix of commercial, energy-linked and support movements
• Saudi Aramco loading: 3 tankers taking crude at Ras Tanura and Al Juaima'h SPMs (satellite imagery, Javier Blas)

Oil Market¶

• Brent September trading below $71/barrel; WTI around $68
• Oil supply through Hormuz reached more than 10 million barrels a day (Bloomberg)
• Total US stockpiles at lowest since March 2025 — 1.2 billion barrels, after 12 straight weeks of declines
• "Prices continue to drift lower as the gush of oil escaping Hormuz coincides with SPR releases and curtailed demand" (Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee)

Shipping Still Considered War Zone¶

• IBF (International Bargaining Forum): continues to designate Hormuz as a warlike operations area until at least July 9
• Double pay for seafarers maintained
• Covers ~15,000 vessels worldwide

Critical Context¶

• Paper oil price has become a vehicle for registering sentiment about negotiations, not the actual state of supply/demand
• Key metric: new loadings in the Gulf — increasing but uncertain if sufficient to prevent oil cliff