Iran War: Trump Declares MOU Over After Biggest US-Iran Exchange of Strikes Since Signing; US Suspends Iran Oil Sanction Waiver¶
naked capitalism | July 8, 2026
Summary¶
President Trump declared the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) "over" at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, following the largest exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran since the MOU was signed on June 17. Iran struck 85 US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, and fired anti-ship cruise missiles at US Navy vessels in the Sea of Oman. The US had struck 80+ Iranian targets in response. The Treasury subsequently revoked General License X, the sanctions waiver that had authorized Iranian crude exports.
Trump's Statement¶
"I think it's over. It's just a waste of time dealing with them."
— President Trump, NATO summit, Ankara, July 8
Additional Trump quotes:
- "We hit them very hard last night"
- "Every time you hit, we hit"
- "I don't like them. They're evil people. It's the denuclearization of Iran. And we're going to denuke it"
- "I might let my wonderful negotiators keep talking" (later walkback signal)
The Military Exchange¶
US Strikes¶
- US Central Command (Centcom): struck more than 80 targets inside Iran
- Targets: response to attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on July 6–7
- Iranian media: most sites hit were civilian — fishing piers, a telecommunications tower, Sirik (Hormozgan province)
Iranian Retaliation¶
- IRGC: struck 85 US military installations in Bahrain (Port Salman/Fifth Fleet) and Kuwait (Ali Al Salem Air Base)
- MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down — was attempting to interfere with IRGC operation
- IRGC statement: described as "initial" response — implying further strikes possible
- Air raid sirens blared twice in Bahrain; Kuwait confronted drone/missile attacks
Anti-Ship Missiles at US Navy¶
- IRGC launched at least two anti-ship cruise missiles and multiple drones at US warships in the Sea of Oman
- Interception status: unconfirmed at time of reporting
The Oil License Revocation¶
The White House revoked General License X — the sanctions waiver authorizing Iranian crude production and sales through approximately August 21, 2026. The license had been issued June 23 as part of the MOU package, freeing ~140M stranded barrels and ~$12B in frozen Iranian assets.
"This is not a small step by Washington. The revoked license was one of the concessions Iran needed to justify lifting its blockade over the Strait of Hormuz."
— Brett Erickson, Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors
Market Reaction¶
| Asset | Move |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −1.0% |
| Dow Jones | −1.3% |
| Nasdaq 100 | −1.5% |
| WTI Crude | +5.0% |
| Brent Crude | +6.0% (to ~$78–80/bbl) |
| Gold | −2.5% |
Status of Negotiations¶
- Qatar had been arranging next round of talks, scheduled after July 9 (end of Khamenei funeral period)
- Iranian Supreme National Security Council reportedly debating whether to continue talks
- Iranian Parliamentarian: US violated MOU by rejecting Iran's role in Hormuz management
- French Foreign Minister: "very concerned"; Germany summoned Iranian ambassador
Assessment¶
The MOU collapse is the sharpest reversal since the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum. The deal had been described by sanctions experts as unbalanced — Iran got immediate sanctions relief and asset unfreezing while committing to nothing specific. The US had given away its leverage before securing denuclearization commitments or permanent Hormuz control. The Omani route (which Iran had insisted on controlling) is now contested again, threatening the 6–8M b/d flow that had been resuming through the strait.