Bibliography

  • https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire

  • https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire/"

Authors: Fraser McKay (Head of Upstream Analysis), Alan Gelder (SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets), Tom Marzec-Manser (Europe Gas and LNG)

Oil Recovery

The 11 Million b/d Shut-In

Wood Mackenzie estimates 11 million b/d of upstream production is currently shut in across the Middle East.

Export Logistics Is the Prerequisite

Recovery requires a "workable system" of transit. Key prerequisites:
- Sustained security for transiting vessels
- Vessel insurance availability
- Commercial trade financing
- Sustained outbound vessel transits (making oil-on-water available)
- Sustained inbound transits (making ballasting vessels available to load crude)
- Confidence in transit viability during and beyond current ceasefire

Ballasting vessels are unlikely to enter via Hormuz any sooner than "just in time" logistics — at risk of becoming trapped if hostilities resume.

Iraq: 6–9 Months to Prior Production

Even unconstrained, countries like Iraq will need 6–9 months to reach prior production levels due to:
- Reservoir management constraints
- Resource constraints

"Even if traffic is unconstrained, it will take countries like Iraq up to nine months to reach prior production levels, due to both reservoir management and resource constraints." — Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis

Storage ullage: Iraq/Kuwait Have Less Than 2 Weeks

  • Saudi Arabia and UAE: ~1 month of storage capacity
  • Iraq and Kuwait: less than 2 weeks

This means Iraq and Kuwait face the most acute storage pressure and will be most constrained in their restart ramp-up.

Warning on Rapid Restart

"Operators hastened by regulators and governments to restore production too rapidly, will risk doing more long-term damage to foundational assets." — Fraser McKay

Initial Recovery: More Than Sufficient for Export Ramp-Up

More than half of most fields' previous supply levels could be restored before shipping constraints ease. After that point, different recovery profiles by country will diverge.

Positive: Reservoir Pressures Rebalance

Shut-ins create a large underground data set for reservoir engineers. Pressure around producing wells will have increased, helping well deliverability during recovery.

LNG/Gas Recovery

Qatar Ras Laffan

  • 12 operable trains at Ras Laffan
  • If restart begins May 2026: full service by end of August
  • North site (41 mtpa capacity): restart in just over one month
  • South site: two trains sustained damage and will not return for years
  • South site capacity reduced to 24 mtpa (down from 36 mtpa)

UAE ADNOC Das Island LNG

Expected to return to service fairly quickly.

UAE Domestic Gas

  • Domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE harder hit than oil
  • Sustained disruption at Habshan would require longer-term repair
  • Would compel UAE to reduce gas reinjection volumes or increase piped imports via Dolphin pipeline

Source

Wood Mackenzie, press release, published April 8, 2026. https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/middle-east-oil-and-gas-recovery-faces-months-long-process-despite-ceasefire/