Al Salazar

Role: Director, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR)
Affiliation: Enverus Intelligence Research — subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics SaaS platform (partnerships covering 95% of US energy producers and 40,000+ suppliers)
Date of Statement: June 10, 2026
Occasion: "Strait of Hormuz | What Comes Next for Oil Markets?" — Enverus Intelligence Research outlook

Profile

Al Salazar is a Director at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), the research arm of Enverus — a leading energy data analytics platform with deep operational relationships across the US energy sector. EIR's analytical strength lies in its integration of proprietary energy data with market modeling. Salazar's June 10, 2026 outlook provides the most specific OECD inventory trough figure (2.36 Bbbl Q4 2026) and the most detailed base-case price path forecast among all current KB sources.

Key Claims

OECD Inventory Trough — 20-Year Low

  • EIR's balance modeling shows OECD crude and product stocks drawing sharply through 2026, from 2.82 billion barrels at year-end 2025 to a 2.36 billion barrel trough in Q4 2026.
  • EIR characterizes this trough as an "unprecedented 20-year low."
  • "The key takeaway in our modeling is that the inventory 'stock hole' can outlast the headline. Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices."

Brent Price Path (Base Case)

  • H2 2026 average: $110/bbl
  • Q4 2026 peak: ~$117/bbl
  • Does not fall below $100/bbl until Q3 2027
  • Year-end 2027: mid-$90s (as flows normalize and inventory rebuild begins)

Durable Geopolitical Premium

  • A $5–$10/bbl geopolitical risk premium is likely to become embedded in oil prices following the closure precedent — and "doesn't fully get unpriced."
  • "The crisis likely leaves behind a more durable geopolitical premium" — structural repricing of Persian Gulf political risk in global oil markets even after the immediate crisis resolves.

Delay Sensitivity Framework

  • Each additional month of disruption adds ~$10–$15/bbl to H2 Brent average in EIR's model.
  • This provides a quantitative framework for scenario modeling and re-pricing as diplomatic developments unfold.

Market Focus on Diplomacy Underestimating Inventory Damage

  • EIR's core argument: the market is myopically focused on ceasefire/diplomacy headlines while the underlying inventory depletion is already baked in and will persist regardless of diplomatic outcomes.
  • "Inventory 'stock hole' can outlast the headline" — even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, the inventory depletion already incurred means prices will remain elevated for months.

Key Facts

Source