Al Salazar

Role: Director, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR)
Affiliation: Enverus Intelligence Research — subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics SaaS platform

Key Claims

OECD Inventory Trough

  • OECD crude and product stocks drawing sharply: 2.82 Bbbl (YE25) → 2.36 Bbbl trough Q4 2026
  • Characterized as an "unprecedented 20-year low"
  • "The key takeaway is that the inventory 'stock hole' can outlast the headline"

Price Path (Base Case)

  • H2 2026 average: $110/bbl
  • Q4 2026 peak: ~$117/bbl
  • Does not fall below $100/bbl until Q3 2027
  • Year-end 2027: mid-$90s

Market Focus Misdiagnosis

  • "Market's focus on diplomacy risks underestimating inventory damage"
  • "Even if diplomacy advances, OECD stocks are projected to bottom at levels that historically correlate with stronger prices"

Delay Sensitivity

  • Each additional month of Hormuz disruption adds ~$10–$15/bbl to H2 Brent average

Durable Geopolitical Premium

  • $5–$10/bbl geopolitical risk premium likely embedded permanently post-crisis

Institutional Context

EIR has unusual data depth: Enverus's partnerships cover 95% of US energy producers and 40,000+ suppliers. This gives EIR proprietary producer-level data for balance modeling beyond what government agencies or trading houses publish.

Created: 2026-06-12