Tom Baker

Role: Managing Director for Bahrain, Vitol
Affiliation: Vitol — world's largest independent oil and gas trader (~$500B+ annual revenue)

Key Quotes and Claims

Scale and Severity

  • "~14 million barrels of Middle East supply offline" — "the largest oil supply crisis in history"
  • "Crude can come back online, but from a product perspective, it might be very hard for the system to catch up for the rest of the year"

Demand Destruction

  • "~4 mbd demand destruction worldwide"
  • "China won't indefinitely not import 5 mbd" — at some point physical molecules will be needed and prices will have to rise
  • "The only solution to higher prices at that point would be demand destruction"
  • "Demand destruction is unlikely at $90/bbl" — market is in a precarious zone

Western Government Response

  • "West asleep at the wheel" — Western governments underestimating the severity and duration
  • Key quote: "The turning point could be when someone really needs those physical molecules and the physical molecules just aren't there to buy"

Price Context

  • Brent peaked at $126/bbl
  • Price at time of statement (June 2): ~$95/bbl
  • Market underpricing risks at $95/bbl

LNG Impact

  • LNG demand rising +7% (+40 bcm) in 2026 — fuel switching from oil to gas

Institutional Context

Vitol is the world's largest independent oil trader. Baker's role covering Bahrain gives him direct visibility into Middle East physical supply movements and buyer behavior — he sees actual cargo flows, not just paper market pricing.

Created: 2026-06-12