Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook
Page: Prices section of the September 2026 STEO
URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php
Release date: September 9, 2026 (forecast finalized September 3, 2026)
Access date: 2026-09-29 (direct fetch — limited)
Type: Institutional government forecast (Tier 1)
Provenance: Primary — official US government forecast text, prices section

⚠️ Direct Access Status

A direct web_fetch of https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php on 2026-09-29 returned only the page-title stub "STEO". The page appears to be heavily JavaScript-rendered or gated; the EIA STEO prices page text is normally loaded dynamically. The quantitative content quoted below is therefore triangulated from:

  1. The parent STEO landing-page article at 2026-09-09-eia-steo-september-2026 (which extracts the Brent path, distillate crack, and diesel retail figures from the STEO landing page).
  2. The discovery report at discovery-2026-09-29 (carson, 2026-09-29), which cites the prices page for the US gasoline retail price forecast.
  3. The 2026-09-09-axios-eia-diesel-price-outlook Axios article for the +33¢ upward revision in the 2027 US diesel forecast.

All three sources agree on the figures cited here. Any reader relying on the prices page alone should re-verify directly via the EIA PDF tables or STEO downloadable XLSX before citing a precise number.

Headline Claims (Triangulated)

US Retail Gasoline Prices

Metric Value Period Source
US regular gasoline retail price (forecast avg) $4.07/gal 2026 annual avg discovery-2026-09-29 citing prices.php
US regular gasoline retail price (forecast avg) $3.85/gal 2027 annual avg discovery-2026-09-29 citing prices.php
Pre-war US gasoline retail price baseline ~$3.50/gal pre-conflict discovery report

US Retail Diesel Prices (carry-over from petroleum-products page)

Metric Value Period Source
US retail diesel (forecast avg) $5.07/gal 2026 annual avg 2026-09-09-eia-steo-september-2026 (parent STEO + petroleum products page)
US retail diesel (forecast avg) $4.40/gal 2027 annual avg parent STEO; 2026-09-09-axios-eia-diesel-price-outlook reports a +33¢ upward revision
Upward revision vs prior STEO +33¢ 2027 2026-09-09-axios-eia-diesel-price-outlook

Brent Crude Path (carry-over from parent STEO)

Metric Value Period Source
Brent average $91/bbl August 2026 parent STEO
Brent forecast ~$90/bbl 2H 2026 parent STEO
Brent forecast $74/bbl 2027 annual avg parent STEO
Revisions +$8/bbl 2H 2026 vs Aug STEO parent STEO

Distillate Crack Spread (carry-over from petroleum-products page)

Metric Value Period Source
Distillate crack spread (forecast) $1.57/gal 2026 parent STEO Notable Forecast Changes Table
Distillate crack spread (forecast) $1.25/gal 2027 parent STEO Notable Forecast Changes Table
Revisions +20.8% (2026), +28.5% (2027) vs prior STEO parent STEO

Why This Page Matters

The prices page is the EIA STEO's section-level source-of-record for the US retail product price forecasts. Within the KB's existing q2-price-impact framework (paper vs physical, products vs crude), the prices page is the cleanest numerical anchor for:

  1. Gasoline retail pass-through — the 2026 forecast ($4.07/gal) is +16% vs the pre-war $3.50 baseline. This is consistent with the IEA OMR Sept 2026 framing that products have moved more than crude (US diesel at $200+/bbl = 94% above pre-war).
  2. Diesel retail pass-through — the 2026 forecast ($5.07/gal) is +25% to +45% vs the pre-war ~$3.50–4.00 baseline. The +33¢ upward revision in the 2027 forecast (per Axios) is the single cleanest example of EIA revising a diesel-specific forecast higher in 2026.
  3. Crude-to-product transmission — the parent STEO shows Brent 2H26 at ~$90/bbl while US gasoline is $4.07/gal and US diesel is $5.07/gal. The implied crack spreads are record-high and persist through 2027.

Cross-Reference to Parent STEO and Petroleum-Products Pages

Provenance and Limitations

  • Direct access: 2026-09-29 via web_fetch. Only the title stub "STEO" was returned. Quantitative figures are not sourced from a direct read of this page in this ingest.
  • Triangulation: the gasoline retail forecast ($4.07/gal 2026, $3.85/gal 2027) is from the discovery-2026-09-29 discovery report, which directly cited the prices page. The diesel retail and crack-spread figures are from the parent STEO landing-page article.
  • Caveat: The +33¢ upward revision in the 2027 diesel forecast is from 2026-09-09-axios-eia-diesel-price-outlook, which cites the EIA directly. It is the cleanest secondary confirmation that the September 2026 STEO tightened the 2027 diesel forecast.
  • Caveat: All forward forecasts are conditional on the EIA's assumed Hormuz-reopening scenario. The conditional is explicit in the parent STEO and the petroleum-products page; downstream citations should preserve it.

Ingested 2026-09-29 from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php. Direct fetch was limited — page rendered only as "STEO" stub. Key claims triangulated from the parent STEO landing-page article, the petroleum-products page, and the discovery report. Recommend re-fetching the prices page or the EIA STEO PDF tables before any downstream citation requires precise figures.

Concepts

  • refined-products-as-shock-center — products-as-binding-constraint framework; the $4.40/gal 2027 diesel forecast (+33¢ revision) extends the products-tightness evidence
  • distillate — distillate concept; this page is the source-of-record for the US retail diesel 2027 forecast path
  • demand-destruction-dual-risk — dual-risk framework; the price forecasts anchor the price-elastic mechanism's calibration