Goldman Sachs — Brent $120 Escalation Scenario

Source: Goldman Sachs — Daan Struyven (Co-head Global Commodities Research) — interview on CNBC Squawk Box Asia
Date: September 9, 2026
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-us-iran-hormuz-attacks.html
Type: Sell-side bank scenario note + TV interview (closed-market)

Executive Summary

Goldman's Daan Struyven went on CNBC Squawk Box Asia on September 9, 2026 in the immediate wake of the U.S. strike on five Iranian crude tankers (retaliation for IRGC attacks on a US warship) and laid out a two-scenario Brent framework:

  • Base case: Brent in $90s with Persian Gulf exports gradually recovering via alternative routes + new pipelines (mid-2027 UAE pipeline)
  • Upside (escalation) scenario: Brent can "potentially reach $120 a barrel" if Hormuz and Red Sea attacks continue to intensify and Persian Gulf exports fail to recover

This is the first major bank to explicitly put $120 Brent in a tail-risk (rather than central) scenario since late-spring 2026.

Market Levels on Sep 9, 2026

Asset Level on Sep 9 close Reference
Brent crude $101.21/bbl Highest close since May 22
WTI $96.05/bbl +3.3% on day
US gasoline (retail) $4.15/gal Labor Day record
US diesel (forecast) $6/gal First time ever (GasBuddy/De Haan)

Brent was up ~30% from early August levels as markets reassessed normalization expectations.

Trigger Event — Sep 9

  • US military destroyed 5 Iranian crude oil tankers Sep 9 (Tuesday)
  • Retaliation for IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on 2 US warships
  • One warship successfully evaded
  • No American personnel harmed (per US CENTCOM)
  • Iran response: Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf (parliament speaker) — "era of proportionate responses is over"; future retaliation will be faster/heavier/more painful
  • Iran's new exclusion zone: from US naval blockade line toward the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf
  • Mohsen Rezaei (head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council) — any ship entering zone with intention to pass through Hormuz → placed on sanctions lists

Struyven's Two-Scenario Framework

Upside (Escalation) Scenario

"In an upside scenario where shipping attacks broaden and intensify, we see Brent potentially reaching $120 per barrel."

The risk of further disruptions to tanker traffic is "an important one."

Base Case

"Goldman's base case remains for Persian Gulf exports to gradually recover as producers adapt to disruptions, including through alternative shipping routes and eventually additional pipeline capacity."

Key infrastructure: UAE bypass pipeline (mid-2027 anticipated).

Updated GS Forecasts (Per earlier Daan Struyven appearances)

Metric Prior Updated Change
2026 Brent avg $77 $85 +$8
2026 WTI avg — $79 —
2027 Brent avg — $80 —
2027 WTI avg — $75 —

The 2027 WTI at $75 (below 2026 WTI of $79) implies Goldman sees the supply response + SPR rebuilding offsetting the rest of the disruption by 2027.

Refined Products Emphasis

Struyven: "investors should focus on rising natural gas and refined product prices, as supply shocks in those markets are larger than in crude."

This is consistent with IEA's 2026-09-11-iea-omr-september-2026 framing of diesel as the most acute point of stress, and with the 2026-08-24-csis-iran-war-six-months discussion of LNG & diesel escaping the standard crude-supply framing.

Significance for the KB

  1. First major bank $120 Brent tail-risk since spring 2026 — confirms that the upper-tail reactivation is consensus
  2. Specific Sep 9 catalyst: US strike on 5 Iranian tankers — establishes the kinetic trigger
  3. Iran's Hormuz exclusion zone — new territorial/escalation concept in the KB
  4. Investors should focus on gas + products — same week as IEA's 2026-09-11-iea-omr-september-2026 diesel-above-$200 framing
  5. 2026 Brent $85/bbl avg —$15 below Sep 9 spot — implies Goldman believes current levels are slightly overstated
  6. 2027 below 2026 (WTI 75 vs 79) — embedding 2027 normalization in base case
  7. Struyven publicly identified — co-head global commodities research; previously spoke on CNBC in July 2026

Connections to Other KB Articles

Names Captured

  • Daan Struyven — Co-head, Global Commodities Research, Goldman Sachs
  • Patrick De Haan — Head of Petroleum Analysis, GasBuddy
  • Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf — Speaker of Iranian Parliament
  • Mohsen Rezaei — Head, Iran's Supreme National Security Council

Ingested 2026-09-13 from CNBC + IndexBox + VentureBurn cross-referenced coverage of Struyven on CNBC Squawk Box Asia Sep 9, 2026. Auth-walled: full Goldman Marquee note behind client portal; key claims extracted from CNBC interview transcript + IndexBox blog.