Al Jazeera: Oil Prices Rise as Lebanon Fighting Erupts; Hormuz Traffic Still Slow

Date: June 19, 2026
Source: Al Jazeera
URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/19/oil-prices-rise-as-lebanon-fighting-erupts-and-hormuz-traffic-still-slow

Key Facts

Price Action (June 19)

  • Brent August futures: $80.37/barrel (+0.65%) — first time above $80 since Wednesday
  • Brent had fallen as much as 0.9% earlier in the day before recovering
  • Oil prices rose as Lebanon fighting threatened the ceasefire underpinning the US-Iran MOU

Immediate Context

  • Israel launched attacks on Lebanon, killing 16 people, threatening the ceasefire agreement
  • A planned US-Iran meeting in Switzerland was cancelled due to the attacks
  • Despite the cancelled meeting, the Strait of Hormuz appeared open to shipping

Tanker Traffic (June 18 Data)

  • 3 Saudi Arabia-flagged supertankers carrying ~6M barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday
  • Ships had spent weeks in the Gulf with transponders turned off; resumed broadcasting on June 18
  • Hong Kong-flagged oil tanker Tong Linh Wan and France-flagged LNG tanker Mraikh also transited
  • Traffic remains a fraction of pre-war levels (pre-war: 120-130 transits/day)

The Bottleneck: 500+ Vessels Waiting

  • 500+ vessels estimated waiting to exit the Gulf through the Strait
  • Ship operators remain cautious about vessel and crew safety after nearly 4 months of threats/attacks

Attack Toll

  • 46 attacks against ships in the vicinity of the channel since late February
  • 14 seafarers killed (per International Maritime Organization)

Mine Clearing Operations

  • Strait is believed to contain an unknown number of Iranian naval mines
  • Mine-sweeping operations could take weeks, even after political resolution

INTERTANKO Statement (June 18)

  • Called for greater clarity on practical steps needed for safe passage
  • Managing Director Tim Wilkins: "Without clarity on these issues, ships will be unsure whether to transit"
  • "Some ships will, of course, start to move. That will be natural. But ship owners have adopted a very cautious approach"
  • "The safety and security of seafarers have been uppermost in their minds"

Analytical Notes

  • The 6M-barrel tanker transit on June 18 was the most significant single movement since the crisis began
  • The mine-clearing timeline is a key constraint on full normalization — weeks, not days
  • The Lebanon fault line (Israel-Hezbollah) is the critical variable threatening the Hormuz reopening timeline
  • 500+ vessels waiting = significant pent-up supply ready to flow when confidence returns
  • INTERTANKO's caution reflects the human cost: 14 seafarer deaths and 46 attacks make commercial caution rational