Amena Bakr (Kpler) — Mine Clearance Timeline via PBS NewsHour¶
Source: PBS NewsHour — June 15, 2026
Key voice: Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East, Kpler
The Recovery Timeline¶
Kpler's Amena Bakr provided the most specific physical-clearance breakdown available:
| Phase | Duration |
|---|---|
| Mine clearing operations | Up to 6 months |
| Vessels leaving and returning to reload | 2-3 months |
| Restarting production to pre-war levels | Additional 3 months |
| Total | ~11+ months from deal |
Implications¶
The mine-clearing timeline is the most cited bottleneck. Even with a ceasefire deal signed June 19, the physical infrastructure of recovery has a minimum ~11-month ramp.
This means structural supply disruption persists well into 2027 regardless of political deal quality — production restart in Iraq, Kuwait, Iran itself all face independent timeline constraints beyond the shipping clearance.
Bakr's specificity on this point anchors the "2027 is the real recovery year" narrative now appearing across multiple sources (Rystad, Capital Economics, ICIS in the Guardian piece).
Concepts¶
- phased-restart-protocol — 6 months mine clearing + 2-3 months reload + 3 months production restart = structural disruption well into 2027
Ingested 2026-06-18. Source: PBS NewsHour / Kpler.