Deutsche Bank — Commodities 2026: The Hormuz Factor¶
Source: Deutsche Bank / Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim / EIU's Kona Haque
URL: https://flow.db.com/Topics/trade-finance/commodities-2026-the-hormuz-factor
(Full report requires Deutsche Bank client registration)
The Recovery Is Not Immediate¶
Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim (via Deutsche Bank's Commodities 2026: The Hormuz Factor):
"End of conflict does not bring immediate bounce-back — it will take time to recover capacity."
This is the same message as Windward, Lloyd's List, and Amena Bakr, but from a trader-economist perspective rather than a maritime intelligence perspective.
The Fertilizer/Food Security Dimension¶
Economist Intelligence Unit's Kona Haque (also cited in the report): the Hormuz disruption impacts approximately one-third of global fertilizer suppliers — specifically ammonium nitrate and urea, critical agricultural inputs.
This creates a second-order food security effect: higher fertilizer prices → higher food production costs → higher food prices for consumers, particularly in import-dependent regions.
Why This Matters for the KB¶
The fertilizer dimension is the most significant second-order effect in the recovery story that is not yet prominent in the KB. The existing KB covers:
- Crude price disruption ✅
- Refined products disruption ✅
- Shipping/logistics disruption ✅
- Inflation/transmission ✅
But the food security channel through fertilizer is a distinct and under-covered pathway. Kpler analyst Alexis Ellender (in the Guardian piece) specifically noted that fertilizer is "at the back of the queue" for Hormuz transit priority — behind oil tankers and LNG carriers — meaning the fertilizer disruption will outlast the initial energy transit recovery.
This is a 2027 and beyond story, making it consistent with the IEA 2027 surplus framing.
Concepts¶
- fertilizer-queue-position — Hormuz disruption impacts 1/3 of global fertilizer suppliers; food security second-order effect
Ingested 2026-06-18. Source: Deutsche Bank / Trafigura / EIU.