Summary

@mercoglianos (open source oil/energy analyst) reported on June 11, 2026 that President Trump posted that 100M barrels of oil are making their way through the Strait of Hormuz under the "Project Freedom" US military escort operation.

Key Events Described

Project Freedom Launch

  • Trump + CENTCOM announced US escort operation for commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz
  • US initially evacuated two ships from the Strait
  • Operation then resumed using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones in the southern Strait near the Oman coast

Iranian Response

  • Iran targeted two specific ships: HMM Namu and CMA CGM San Antonio
  • US responded with airstrikes against Iran

VLCC Workaround (STS Transfers)

  • Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are exiting the Persian Gulf
  • Conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman to avoid the Strait
  • Empty tankers then re-enter the Strait to pick up new loads from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq

Supporting Details

  • Apache helicopter crash was likely part of this operation
  • War risk insurance provided by US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) — pool of ~$40 billion
  • Kuwait announcement to fix new oil contracts explained by this operation
  • System requires ~12–14M barrels/day through the Strait to function

Relevance to Existing KB

  • Confirms STS transfer workaround previously documented in the KB
  • Updates the DFC war risk insurance mechanism ($40B backstop)
  • Corroborates Apache helicopter crash as operation-related
  • Provides data source attribution (@TankerTrackers, @Kpler, @MarineTraffic, @LloydsList, @gCaptain)

KB Impact Assessment

  • Q1 Supply Destruction: Confirms operational workaround (STS transfers) keeps oil flowing; updates Iranian targeting capability data
  • Q2 Price Impact: DFC $40B insurance pool explains why shippers are willing to move cargo despite war risk; confirms escalation and price spike risk
  • Q3 Europe Impact: STS transfer delays add time/transport costs to European supply chain; confirms continued flow despite conflict