July 9, 2026 — Daily Digest¶

Status: FULL KINETIC WAR — MOU Dead, Weeks-Long Hormuz Fight¶

Key Developments¶

US Runs Largest Strike Wave Since April¶

• CENTCOM struck 80+ targets across six Iranian coastal cities: Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Bushehr, Chabahar, Sirik, Konarak
• Iran's IRGC retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones: 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait (Port Salman/Fifth Fleet, Ali Al Salem Air Base)
• Bushehr IRGC barracks hit and ablaze (nuclear plant nearby, not targeted)
• IRGC shot down MQ-9 Reaper drone over Bushehr (footage confirmed)
• Iran fired anti-ship cruise missiles at US Navy vessels in Sea of Oman

White House Plans Weeks-Long Hormuz Fight¶

• Axios: preparation for extended military exchange "for days or several weeks" to control the Strait
• All previous ceasefire/reopening gains reversed

Hormuz: Inbound VLCCs Zero; Oman Route Contested¶

• HFI Research: inbound tanker flows slowed to a trickle; IRGC using missiles (escalation from previous drone attacks)
• Only 2 tankers crossed morning of July 9; US escorts paused
• Oman route "heavily contested in coming days/weeks"

Brent Breaks $80; Largest Oil Short Ever Squeezed¶

• WTI +2.2% to $75.13 at open; Brent surged through $80
• Options volumes exploded; futures turnover ~2x 10-day average
• JustDario: sitting on "largest oil short position ever recorded"
• 63M barrels of Iranian crude stranded at sea after US revoked General License X

SPR at 43-Year Low¶

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit lowest since 1983 (~19M barrels from estimated minimum operating levels per Eric Nuttall)

Russia Bans Diesel Exports Through July 31¶

• Diesel prices: 2nd biggest gain this century
• Crack spreads at all-time highs — shortage now in refined products, not just crude
• VLO (Valero) ripped higher

Nuclear: Iran Threatens NPT Withdrawal, Closure of Both Hormuz AND Bab el-Mandeb¶

• Iran threatens full withdrawal from NPT and closure of both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb if struck again
• IAEA still without access to Iranian nuclear facilities

Financial: Global Bonds Cracking¶

• Japan 40Y yield 4.055%; France 30Y at post-GFC high
• KOSPI in bear market (down 20%+ from June peak)
• Hedge funds: largest yen short since run-up to 2008 crisis
• FOMC minutes: "a few" members wanted June hike; majority fear higher inflation

Sources¶

• No1 Daily Digest (July 9, 2026)
• ZeroHedge / OSINT aggregation
• HFI Research Twitter (@HFI_Research, July 8-9)
• Hedgeye / Eric Nuttall Twitter
• MenchOsint Twitter