July 10, 2026 — Daily Digest¶

Status: HORMUZ EFFECTIVELY CLOSED — IRAN DECLARES IT; US SAYS OTHERWISE; SHIPPING IGNORES US¶

CENTCOM completed second major strike round: ~90 targets hit (Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Bushehr, Chabahar, Konarak)
Total: 300+ targets across two nights of operations (July 7-9)
US and Gulf states curiously denied newest strikes on Konarak naval base — OSINT reads as "attempt to dodge retaliation"
Iran reports: 14 killed, 78 injured across five provinces from first two US strike rounds

OFAC targeted Ali Ansari — Dubai-based banker; financial architect for Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC
Smart Global Limited (Saint Kitts and Nevis holding company) — real estate/commercial properties across Europe and Gulf
Three Iran-based exchange houses facilitating billions for sanctioned Iranian banks
CDM Trading Limited (Hong Kong) — shell company layering
Brett Erickson (Obsidian Risk Advisors): "Washington is no longer trying to salvage the existing framework. It's preparing to replace it entirely."

FM Abbas Araqchi: Bessent violated Article 9 — US agreed "not to impose any new sanctions and not deploy additional forces"
"Reality check: There can only be mutual compliance. Iran has so far kept its word."
Ghalibaf: "The war would never end with Tehran's surrender"

Despite US air umbrella (AWACS, dozens of jets, MQ-9 drones): southern corridor seeing "almost zero" traffic
MarineTraffic: ~10 merchant vessels used Iran's route; only 1 vessel used US-supported Omani corridor in 24 hours
At least two vessels initially headed for Omani corridor, changed course to Iran's route
Commercial shipping complying with Iran's terms despite massive US military presence

HFI Research: US back to escorting some ships; one group got through with AIS off
All ships using Iran's designated route, not US-supported corridor

Oman's foreign minister met Iran's FM on July 11 over the strait
Qatar PM held separate calls with Iranian FM Araghchi and Saudi FM Prince Faisal

MOU Paragraph 5 ambiguous: US read as "unlocking strait for US-coordinated traffic"
Iranian hardliners: maximalist interpretation = exclusive Iranian control over Hormuz
Eric Brewer (former senior US Iran analyst): "The flaw of the MOU was that it papered over major differences between the U.S. and Iran on the ceasefire, the status of the Strait, and sanctions relief. Either the U.S. didn't know about those differences or chose to ignore them."

Brent closed ~$76.56/barrel Friday July 10 (+5% weekly)
Up $4+/bbl vs. last week despite relative Friday calm
TD Securities: Brent moving $10-$15 higher into summer as inventories dwindle
Markets closed through weekend — July 11-12 escalation not yet priced

IMO SG Dominguez: condemned "reckless attacks" on ships; warned against exposing seafarers to danger
UN SG Guterres: "alarming" developments risk "catastrophic consequences for the region and global economy"